Just hours away from July 1, you wonder how long it will be before the Reds fire sale begins. It's no secret, for the right price, you can have anyone on the roster, with the exception of Homer Bailey and Aaron Harang. Here are my odds for who goes first:
Scott Hatteberg 1-2
Jeff Conine 2-1
David Weathers 3-1
Adam Dunn 8-1
Bronson Arroyo 10-1
Ken Griffey, Jr 15-1
I think Hatteberg is the right price, is hitting as well as he's ever hit in his career and is a left hander who hits for average. The Yankees are interested, I'm hearing. Conine fits the same suit, from the right handed side of the plate.
Weathers would be a perfect set up guy for the Yankees, Mets and Phillies. Dunn's salary and the fact he can terminate his option year of $13 million in 2008 makes trading him problematic. But the Reds may so inclined to deal him, to get out from under that deal. Arroyo is throwing better than he did in May. But he appears to have a 'tired arm'. Still, I'm told at least one contending team inquired about Arroyo right around opening day this year. The Reds weren't interested in dealing him then. They would be now.
As for Griffey, Jr, I'm hearing he's close to being untouchable. The Reds are said to be less interested in dealing him, as Junior is a local guy, chasing a milestone (600 career HR's) and is a box office attraction. As the Reds aren't expected to be good in 2008, Junior can be counted on to sell tickets.
The big question in all of this, is what can the Reds legitimately expect in return for any of their players. The answer, as you'd expect at this time of the year, is not much. You normally get prospects for 'stars' in mid season. That's what the Reds got from their fire sale in 2003. Eventually, like Harang in '03, you'll get a nice payoff for a mid season sale. But it's a payday that's years away.
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