I don’t know if the Reds are goinig to be any better this season that last. They don’t, and you don’t either. Because at this time of the year, everybody believes they’ve got what it takes to win it all. I’ve been at spring training camps with the Reds, when their best pitchers were Jimmy Haynes and Joey Hamilton, and they truly believed they had the stuff to contend. I didn’t want to burst their bubble at the time, but even the team bus driver knew, they had no shot.
But after spending about five days out here in the desert, here’s what my eyes are tellilng me.
For starters, this team has never had more raw talent, more potential than it has right now, certainly not in the last ten seasons. The every day eight, the rotation and the bullpen is deeper than it’s ever been. Now, you and I both know that potential is sometimes left at the gate when the pennant races begin. No body has won a pennant ‘on paper’.
I did a side by side comparison between the Reds and the Cardinals a few Sundays ago. I thought it was a 50-50 split. On some levels, at some positions, the Cardindals were ahead of the Reds. On other levels, the Reds stacked up better. At this time of the season, it doesn’t matter. Who knows what injuries, slumps and sore arms await a team at this time of the year.
But here’s what I do know. The Reds lost their ‘ace’, Edison Volquez last season. But the starting rotation this year is the best it’s been maybe in 15 years. Maybe it’s a little bit of wishful thinking here. But I believe that Aaron Harang reverts back to his pre-2008 form this season. He’s as slim as he was last season. And Harang has also spent a lot of time in the off season working the weights.
Bronson Arroyo eats innings. Johnny Cueto doesn’t. And who knows which Homer Bailey shows up this year. The good Homer Bailey ended last season, looking very much like the prized draft pick from 2004.
The bullpan is over priced at the back end. Francisco Cordero is tying up $14 million dollars in payroll. But his 39 saves with a below average baseball team last season was more than impressive. If the starters can eat up enough innings, Cordero will easily hit 39 again in 2010.
Go up and down the everyday eight. Is there a better defensive infield in the National League than your Cincinnati Reds? Scott Rolen is the best defensive third baseball this team has had since Aaron Boone. Orlando Cabrera and Brandon Phillips have had gold in their gloves. And in a division with top to bottom maqui first baseball, Joey Votto more than holds his own. Behind the plate, Ramon Hernandez is easily the best catcher this team has had since Benito Santiago and Eddie Taubensee.
The big stat in baseball now is ‘run prevention’. That’s baseball-eese for good defense. In the Reds infield, ‘run prevention’ should never be easier to achieve than it will be in 2010.
In the outfield, there are five guys who can legitimately say they have a right to start. Only three can, of course. But Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce and Laynce Nix all have a legit reason to lay claim to a starting job. Look it up: Nix and Dickerson and Gomes in left field last season dropped some solid numbers. Bruce was much better at the plate after coming back from his broken wrist than he was before he broke it. Drew Stubbs hit for power after being called up from Triple A. Stubbs and the word power used to be mutually exclusive.
Here’s something else: everybody in the outfield can fly. The team speed in the outfield is exhilirating. Centerfielders, by and large, aren’t usually lead off hitters. But because of his speed, Stubbs can fill that spot. Dickerson can too, if need by. Team speed is a real strength.
But no team, in professional sports, operates in a vacuum. The Reds certainly don’t. They have the Cardinals, Cubs and Astros to contend with. The Brewers were a contender late into last season. They play in the only six team division in baseball. The fact is, all of those teams have gotten better in the off season too.
What I’ve seen since I arrived out here on Tuesday has led me to believe this team can be a lot better in 2010 than 2009. I’m rooting for that. Not for the Reds, mind you. My job doesn’t afford me that luxury. In journalism, broadcast or print, you have to check your rooting interests at the door. But I’m rooting for the Reds to be better in 2010 than any other year in the last 15 because, we really need it. Maybe you remember the good old days. Maybe you don’t. If you’re not 26 or 27 years old, you don’t remember the last time the Reds won a World Series. That’s a major problem for this team. It’s marketing to a lost generation. Too many potential fans have grown up since 1990 and have taken their rooting interests to other teams; or worse forgotten about the game of baseball all together.
This lost generation doesn’t go to games, like their father and grandfathers (or grandmothers for that matter) once did. They now have families and their children aren’t being raised Reds fans, like a lot of us were. The lost generation doesn’t spend money on the Reds, doesn’t spend money on the businesses in downtown that rely on them. The economy suffers because the team hasn’t been good. And we all suffer because of that. Good business in and around Great American Ball Park suffer, or fold and we suffer along with them. Having a competitive baseball team, a team that plays like it has a chance to win, creates buzz and buzz creates dollars and dollars fuel an economy.
Downtown Cincinnati is struggling. The Chamber of Commerce and the downtown PR flaks will try to tell you otherwise. But go ask anyone who runs a business downtown how things are going. The prevailing answer is ‘not good’. A good baseball team can change that. It can bring fans to downtown, who might just decide to drop a few more bucks in the businesses outside the ball park. Having a winning team is nice. Having a winning team that generates income for surrounding businesses is nicer.
That’s why I’m rooting for the Reds to be a better team this year. When they win, Cincinnati wins. And Cincinnati, like a lot of cities around the country, are having a tough time winning these days.I think it’s going to be better in 2010. I’m always a glass half full kind of guy. But honestly, I don’t know. I just hope. And that’s what this time of the year is all about
