I Want To Believe The Bengals Will Beat The Browns Sunday....

And I think they've got a legitimate shot to pull it off. But a lot of things have to go right for the Bengals. It starts by getting off the field on third down, defensively. The Bengals had trouble doing that last season. But in this year's pre-season games, the Bengals did a better job at third down defense. Cleveland will almost certainly try to pound Peyton Hillis. That's their game, or at least it was under Eric Mangini. New head coach, Pat Shurmer may have other ideas. But Hillis has been their horse. Last year, in the game played at Cleveland, Hillis ran for 102 yards on the Bengals defense. Just as important, he helped the Browns control the game clock. When the two teams played again in Cincinnati later in the year, Hillis wasn't so successful.

The Bengals will have to counter with Cedric Benson, for the same reasons as the Browns will try to run. Benson is the security blanket for rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton and new offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden. Benson can help manage the game for both. And, the Bengals offensive line is more adroit at run blocking than pass protection. So a lot of what will go down Sunday in Cleveland will come down to which team has the better defense against the run. That's where I think the Bengals have the edge. They demonstrated in this year's pre-season games they've tightened things up defending the run. If that was any indication of what the regular season may hold, advantage Bengals Sunday, and a real chance at winning their opener.

Here's another reason why the Bengals may have an edge: the Browns are 1-11 in season opening games, since returning to the NFL in 1999.

Other random thoughts on this random night.....

Great, and I mean great opening game for the 2011 NFL season. 76 points total and a game that went right down to the last play. And what a debut for former University of Kentucky star, Randall Cobb. The Packers' second round pick in this past April's draft caught a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers. And then, Cobb returned a kickoff for a touchdown....108 yards! Kickoff returns may not hold the drama they have in seasons past, due to the new rule placing the ball on the 35 yard line for kicks. But Cobb's return may be an indication that every once in awhile, you get that kind of magic.....

I like the Steelers, Falcons, Bucs and Chiefs Sunday, for what that's worth....

Can UC pull of an upset at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville Saturday afternoon. UC senior running back Isaiah Pead said this week "we're going to shock the world". Tennessee isn't a top tier team in the SEC this season. But road teams not named Boise State traditionally have trouble in SEC stadia, any of them. Like to think it will happen. Tough to think it will....

I don't know about you, but I've had enough of Ramon Hernandez and Edgar Renteria this season. If I'm Dusty Baker, I was through playing each a long time ago. Nothing against either, particularly Hernandez who could, in a certain set of circumstances wind up back here next season. But there is no excuse for not playing the future now. That would be catcher Devin Meseraco, third baseman Juan Francisco, outfielder Yonder Alonso and short stop Chris Valaika. Honestly, no one other than the players involved cares about individual 'goals' like winning a league earned run average or scoring a set number of runs. To give the team it's best shot of contending again in 2012, we need to get beyond those kinds of things.

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Less Than 2 Weeks To Go Before The NFL 2011 Season Kicks Off. Do You Know Where Your Season Ticket Holders Are?

The game within the game at Bengals games is back, I'm afraid. Throughout the dark days of the early 2000's, the guessing game in the press box was always, guess the attendance. After looking at the gathering at Paul Brown Stadium last Thursday night for the Bengals first home exhibition game of the year, I think attendance may be a bit better than what a lot of us may think. I don't think we'll see a sell out, besides the annual visit from the heathens from Western Pennsylvania. But I could see a consistent crowd in the neighborhood of 40,000 this year. And for a team that's done its best to run off its fan base, that's saying something for your Cincinnati Bengals.

Which begs for answer to this latest poll question see on this blog: if you go to Bengals games, are you a loyal fan or an enabler?

Here's the big question tonight sports fans: will NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell challenge the players union and attempt to suspended Cedric Benson for taking a plea bargain and jail time. Benson took the deal today, before his trial began in Austin. This was from an incident in 2010, when Benson was involved in a bar fight. Benson's contention then, was that he was jumped by an assailant and was merely defending himself. At the time, he met with Goodell and got off with a warning from the commissioner. But Benson's contention then was that he was the aggreived party. Just a side note here: aggreived parties rarely get jail time. Today, Benson cut a deal with the county prosecutor and took a 20 day jail sentence, which will probably be reduced to a week, meaning Benson could miss zero games. But will Goodell now elect to revisit this situation. And if he does, will the players union challenge him on it, on sort of a double jeopardy argument? Stay tuned.

Yonder Alonso at third base tonight? Why not. The Reds should exhaust every option to find a position for Alonso to play before using him as trade bait. He's that good with a bat. But I still contend, he should be given another chance to play in left field. If he played 70 plus games at "AAA" without an error, he deserves a longer look at the Major League level.

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Sitting here wondering how a guy like Andy Dalton gets such orange hair....

So there you see the poll we're offering up this week: which Bengals quarterback will be the starter come opening game? My money is on Dalton. And its not just because he's the 'future' for the Bengals. If you want to win games, you start a veteran, right? And that would be Bruce Gradkowski. His numbers as a starter wouldn't make anyone take notice, 6-14 in 20 NFL starts. But you want a steady hand to show the young the way, much as Jon Kitna did with Carson Palmer in 2003. Except....

Everything is new this year on that side of the Bengals ball. Jay Gruden is the new offensive coordinator. Do you really think he wants to sacrifice a year, waiting for Dalton to grow up? If it's all new, why not start the future, now? Do you really think Mike Brown is going to sell a lot of tickets (and apparently, there are a lot of tickets to sell) by promoting a team with Bruce Gradkowski as its number one quarterback? The folks will be lined up to buy that. In a perfect world, Dalton isn't the guy you want lining up under center against the Browns on opening day (in Cleveland no less). But the NFL, particularly this year, is far from perfect. And the Bengals, well....you know the rest of that line.

Hey, we're number...what??? Yes, the ESPN power rankings are out for yet another year in the NFL and your Cincinnati Bengals are ranked 32nd out of 32 franchises. But hey, that's up from 122 out of 122 total professional sports franchises, where the world wide leader had your men in stripes ranked just a few weeks ago.

Go Bengals. Who Dey.

Now we know why Mike Brown was so giddy about getting the CBA down with the players union (and why he voted for it this time, unlike 2006). Come to find out, in the small print it says there is NO floor to the salary cap this year and next for individual teams. Which means Brown, and any other owner in the NFL can spend as little as he wants on player salaries until the 2013 season. Factor in last year, which was an uncapped year, and that's millions to the bottom line for Brown. Details, details...

Why is the Yonder Alonso experiment in left field over after just three starts? Can someone help me out, figuring out this situation. First, they draft the guy in 2008 knowing that Joey Votto was going to be the Reds first baseman for the foreseeable future (to say nothing of being under cost control for at least three seasons). You had to figure someone (and yes, Walt Jocketty was in charge when the June draft rolled around that year) had a plan for Alonso just in case Votto would blossom into the players he eventually became. So this year, with Votto under contract for at least the next three, the Reds instructed their Louisville team to play Alonso in left field, a lot. In 70 plus games, he committed no errors in left field. Let me repeat that total: zero. Finally (and again Walt, riddle us this: why did it take sooooo long to bring Alonso to the majors) up comes Yonder and he gets a grand total of three starts in left before manager Dusty Baker declares, Alonso doesn't have the skills to play in left.

To be honest, Alonso did have a few adventures at Wrigley Field last weekend. But he also brought a disciplined plate approach to the Reds and happened to hit the ball very well. As an aside, let's hope Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce were taking notes. And let's also be honest about this: Jonny Gomes, and before him Adam Dunn were in no danger of winning Gold Gloves playing that position in years past.

And isn't this the same group that gave Gomes eight weeks (EIGHT WEEKS) this season to figure out how to hit the ball, the same group who gave us the nightmares known as Corey Patterson and Wily Tavares? And Alonso gets three starts?

So Monday, Baker has Alonso out at third base taking ground balls, in the hope he could play that position at some point. But what's the point? If you want him to eventually become a third baseman (where Alonso allegedly played before arriving at the University of Miami several years ago) why not send him back to AAA and let him play there every day?

By the way, there are only two ways the argument over drafting a player who projected to the majors at one, exclusive position can go. Either the people the Reds had scout Alonso failed to evaluate him as a player who could play at some place other than first base. Or, the organization failed in properly evaluating the long term potential of Joey Votto.

In that 2008 draft when they took Alonso, the Reds passed on, among others, infielder Gordon Beckham, the 2009 Sporting News American League Rookie Of The Year, and pitcher Aaron Crow, now with the Royals. Crow, incidentally was good enough to pitch in this year's All Star Game. Memory refresher: in 2008 the Reds had no short stop (Alex Gonzalez was basically a ghost in his three years here) and not a whole lot of quality pitching.

This whole Alonso incident makes you wonder if anyone who's in the baseball operations department down at Great American Ball Park knows what they're doing. Let's hope it's just another example of Baker and Jocketty not 'being on the same page'. And then, let's further hope that Big Bob Castellini calls both into his office quickly and fixes this.

But hey, what do I know? I'm just some guy on TV.

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Wondering If The Reds Season Is Just About Over

Tough to believe, isn't it? Last year, so much promise, so much fun. This year? Not so much. You'll get a lot of answers to the question, 'where did it go wrong'. But I think this season was lost in the winter. Other teams in the Reds division decided to go shopping. The Reds sat that out. Other teams in their division made strategic changes (Cardinals with Berkman, Brewers with Marcum and Greinke and now Rodriguez). The Reds reinvested in their own talent, doing contract extensions with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

You can look this up: rare is the team that repeats as division champ that does NOT do some retooling in the off season.

The Reds front office, including last years MLB Executive Of The Year Walt Jocketty, simply over-valued too many of their players and thought they made even exchanges for the players they lost. Fred Lewis for Laynce Nix? Not even close. Edgar Renteria for Orlando Cabrera? Cabrera isn't tearing it up in Cleveland. But they signed him for $1 mil and Renteria is costing the Reds $2.1 million, minimum this season. He has incentives that kick in with added playing time. Cabrera, though, was a great team leader and it's no small reason why every team he plays for contends. Aroldis Chapman for Arthur Rhodes? Not even close. Chapman has been better lately. But for the first two months of this season, he was a 100 mph disaster.

If I sign the checks at Great American Ball Park, I'm calling both Jocketty and Dusty Baker into my office and asking them why they do what they do. The General Manager didn't make a meaningful change until late last week, when he finally relented and called up AAA shortstop Zach Cozart, who should have been up here early in June. The manager insists on playing veteran players who under perform, at the expense of younger players who show promise.

What kind of message does that send to Reds fans? This one: mediocrity is acceptable. And the same message is delivered to the players in the Reds clubhouse. It's naive, to say nothing of bad business, to think that one season in the last 15 has built up enough equity to carry this team through a season like this. It's 2001, 02, 03 or any other year since 1995 all over again.

There's a line that separates patience from stubbornness. Four games out of first, two games under five hundred and showing absolutely nothing since opening week that would lead you to believe this team is capable of a prolonged winning streak, the Reds have crossed the line.

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Ugly couple of days for your Cincinnati Reds, including Thursday, when the Pirates made it five of six against them so far this season.

And the lesson here is pretty simple: it's great to get worked up into a lather over sweeping the Cardinals. But every one of these games counts the same. Maybe it was a let down. Maybe it was Pirates Pitching that seems to have the Reds number this season.

But at the end of any season, they don't ask you who you beat. They only ask you how many you've got. At least that's how the Reds won their division last year.

And as we wait for the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals to rule on the legality of the NFL lockout, one word of caution to the NFL owners: you've won the latest round. Don't overplay your hand.

Even in the conservative 8th court, there are no guarantees you'll win the next round. And rather than wait on that, work even harder now to get a settlement. Don't just say you want to do it. Do it.

What good is winning the war, when you lose the peace?

Finally, a word about the whining that continues to come out of St. Louis. Give Tony La Russa credit: he said he doesn't believe Francisco Cordero was throwing at Albert Puljos Sunday. Of course he wasn't. Not with the tying and winning runs in play because Prince Albert got plunked.

But somebody should tell that to his leiutenant, interim manager Joe Pettini, who said it's always something when the Cardinals come to Cincinnati. Really? Like that deception a couple of weeks ago in St. Louis on a rain delay was the way to handle things fairly? Really?

Chris Carpenter didn't like the fact that fireworks smoke, after he allowed a home run, delayed the game. The way he was pitching, he should have welcomed the delay. Carpenter should be more upset with the way his right fielder, Lance Berkman played. The man behaved like it was his first day out of short pant.

The arrogance of the Cardinals franchise is forever astounding. They're good, just ask them and theyll tell you. The Cardinals win with style. They should learn to lose with grace.

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On to Houston tonight for your Cincinnati Reds. The three games in Chicago were frustrating only in the realization that the Reds could have made it a sweep, except for the meltdown of Coco Cordero on Saturday afternoon. Sunday, many Reds fans called into my radio show on 700 WLW and wondered why Cordero is still the closer on this team. Two simple reasons: money (he's making in excess of $12 million this year) and what is the other alternative to Cordero? Who would fit the closer mold better right now? The answer, from the current Reds roster, is no one.

Nick Masset? I'm sure the Reds have considered him a candidate in the past two off seasons. But Masset is a notoriously slow starter and using him in that role beginning Opening Day would have been a disaster.

Aroldis Chapman? Control has always been a huge issue with him. And he is still trying to figure out how to keep runners on base from stealing. Saturday, with two out and runners on second and third, Dusty Baker left Cordero on the mound and did not bring Chapman in for one very big reason: Chapman could have brought the winning run home with a wild pitch. Turns out, the Reds lost anyway. But to think that Baker doesn't consider the pitfalls of using other relievers in a closing situation is simple wrong.

Cordero must be included in the conversation, if that conversation is about the top ten closers in baseball. Look at the numbers. Yes, he's good for eight or nine blown saves a year. Virtually everyone who has that job in baseball will finish the year with the same number. The greatest closer in the history of baseball, the Yankees Mariano Rivera, has blown 68 saves in his 17 year career. If the greatest closer in the history of baseball blows an average of four save opportunities a year, blowing eight a year really isn't all that bad.

The larger issue with the Reds continues to be hitting with runners in scoring position. They had a grand total of nine runs in the three game series against the Cubs and, as a team, hit less than .200 in that three game series.

The glaring problem with the Reds right now isn't their closer. It's the missing bat of Scott Rolen. Until he returns, this team will struggle for runs. The more you have in the 9th inning of a game, the easier it is on your closer. Plain, simple, end of story.

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The Reds enjoyed a rare rainout Monday. And the game was called early in the day, so they could simply come to the park and get in their hitting and go home. But one of the things they must work on if they're going to contend this season, is getting the hitters with the most chances to drive in runs productive again.

The batters with the two most chances to drive in runs this eason are Jonny Gomes and Jay Bruce. And each is struggling, mightily.

Gomes had an RBI this weekend. But he's hitting just .200 with runners in scoring position. Bruce is hitting just .167. And what makes this one of the strange anomalies that baseball offers, is that the Reds, as a team, are 4th best in the National League in driving in baserunners in scoring position.

The problem for the Reds gets compounded, when you notice that the two batters who've had the most chances to drive in runners in scoring position are.....you got it, Bruce and Gomes. Joey Votto is hitting .363 with RISP, but he's had fewer chances than either Gomes or Bruce.

The law of baseball averages dictates that the game will eventually come back to Gomes and Bruce and each will find that key hits that aren't happening now, will eventually.

But right now, it's killing this team.

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Drew Stubbs is one of those players who can infuriate you one inning and turn you into an unabashed fan the next.

He did it again today.

In the 4th inning at Milwaukee, pitcher Sam Lecure led off with a double to center. Stubbs was the next batter up in a 4-2 ballgame with the Reds in the lead. Stubbs proceeded to strike out on three pitches. He strikes out a lot. But the infuriating thing about this strike out was that Stubbs was caught looking by Milwaukee pitcher Yovani Gallardo. He didn't even offer at the third pitch. To me, that's the most inexcusable out a player can make with a runner in scoring position. You at least have to make an attempt to put the ball in play. Stubbs slinked back to the dugout with Lecure still on second. He got no farther than 3rd base.

Yet, the other Drew Stubbs is the guy who can track down fly balls in center field that not many other players can. The other Drew Stubbs arrived in the 10th inning of a tie game and delivered a solo home run, the difference in a 7-6 Reds win. It was the difference in going 3-3 on this road trip or 2-4.

Yes, I'd like to see Stubbs bunt more. Why that hasn't been a priority with Dusty Baker and his hitting coach, Brook Jacoby is beyond me. As a wise mind like Reds TV broadcast, Chris Welsh said several times last season, if Stubbs would turn 15 of his strike outs into bunt base hits, he'd be a .280 hitter with killer power numbers. But he's also young (and more important to the Reds front office salary cheap). Stubbs upside is enormous, even if his current stock seems stagnant.

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Random Thoughts On A Too Cold Tuesday.... Who turned the AC on? It's supposed to be April right? Best thing I've seen with your Cincinnati Reds since the start of this season is resiliency. Down in a game, comeback after a loss, this team never seems to get caught up in bad breaks. I don't forsee any extended losing streaks this season. I really don't.... Second best thing I've seen this season: Bronson Arroyo. The ace of the staff. Period, end of story.... Chris Heisey needs to play more. I know, I know, I've been "Johnny One Note" on this. But he's got speed in the outfield and can hit. No reason why Dusty can't get into a four man rotation for three outfield spots. Jay Bruce can use a break every fourth day. So can the other two... Best non move that Dusty Baker has made this spring? Not moving Brandon Phillips out of the two hole. The most important player on this team is Phillips. Leaving him in his most comfortable spot is vital to the long term success of this team. And hitting .411 going into Tuesday night's game is further proof that the two hole is Phillips most comfortbale spot.... The Bengals can squire Came Newton all around town for as long as they want. There's no way he'll be available to them when they pick fourth overall in the upcoming draft. And they don't need him.... Here's my grand plan for fixing the Bengals. Round #1: take the best offensive lineman in the draft. Forget the projections, whether or not the guy is worthy of fourth overall money. The Bengals need help at right tackle, left guard and someone who's an heir apparent to Bobbie Williams at right guard. Round #2: if he's available, take TCU quarterback, Andy Dalton. He could be the quarterback steal of the draft and has an excellent chance to be the Bengals quarterback of the future. Then, they should sign free agent Marc Bulger simply to get them through 2011 (if it happens and let's face it, if it does, the Bengals don't look to be very good). The Bengals wide receiver corps, as is, is more than serviceable. Jermaine Gresham is a terrific tight end in the making. Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley can be complimentary pieces to a wide receiver the Bengals could obtain in round three. But the biggest need is at offensive line. Final piece in my rebuilding puzzle? I'd sign Cedric Benson. New offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden wants to be a run oriented offense anyway. Convince Benson to come back to that kind of offense and the Bengals may be back on their feet again. So they'll probably take a wide receiver with their first round pick.... This blog may not be reproduced, repositioned or re-purposed, in whole or in part and in any manner, without the written consent of Ken Broo.

Random Toughts On A Random Thursday...

Scott Rolen made back to back errors in this exhibition game today vs the Rangers? Will never happen in 162 games this coming season...

Now Jonny Gomes.....

Actually, look it up. Gomes only committed four errors last season. As a team, the Reds only committed 72. Brandon Phillips won a Gold Glove, largely because he booted the ball only three times in 702 chances.

For the record, Rolen had eight E's in 2010.

Decent outing for Bronson Arroyo today, which is good considering he's been sick for about two weeks. Today in a minor league game vs the Dodgers, Arroyo went 5.2, allowed 6 hits and three runs. He whiffed six and walked only one. I believe Arroyo has walked just two batters all spring.

I also believe aliens are programming several of my DirecTv channels. But that's a story for another day....

NFL owners are now saying that Mike Brown was a visionary back in 2006, when only he and Bills owner, Ralph Wilson voted against the CBA that just ended. The Giants John Mara said "We should have listened to him", back in 2006. Jim Irsay chirps in as well, in an article written by Geoff Hobson on the Bengals official web site.

Brown is one of the smartest people I've met on this earth. But he places no value on what his image is. Or offensive linemen, again a story for another day.....

I still think the NFL labor situation spills into the season. Both sides have to hurt for this to be settled. And the only way hurt enters into the equation is for players to miss game checks and owners to miss revenue stream. We're a long way from that. I'm sure the judge in Minnesota who'll hear the suit filed by several players to end the lockout will rule shortly after the April 6th hearing. And I'm equally sure the NFL or the players will appeal whatever decision she makes. But I laugh when I hear that one side or the other will 'cave' after a non-favorable ruling. The owners have a 'war chest' to operate from. The players are out nothing until September. Why would they want to settle now? To get ready for mini-camps? Really?....

Elizabeth Taylor's best movie was Who's Afraid Of Virginia Wolfe. But I'll watch Butterfield 8 anytime, anywhere. Who's left from the Golden Age of Hollywood? Can't think of any....

Zsa Zsa Gabor was rushed to the hospital upon hearing the news of Taylor's death. Her publicist says Zsa Zsa's blood pressure went sky high. She feared she'd be the next to go. True story.....

Eva Gabor, totally unappreciated, particularly in her finest role as Lisa Douglas on "Green Acres"....

Is Merv Griffin still with us?.....

Does any college basketball coach tell the truth when he talks about an opponent before an NCAA Tournament game? Today, John Calipari was gushing over the Ohio State Buckeyes, making it sound as though if he team beats OSU Friday night, it'd be the biggest upset since the election of '48. Just once, I'd love to hear a coach say "Well, they're lucky to be here. We're so much better than this team, I hope we don't die of boredom before the final horn". I'd be the mother of all sound bites...

Of course, the coach who says that gets villified, then fired, win or lose...

And OSU is 5-0 all time against Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.

Still....

It's gotta be me, but all of the network TV shows I like have been or are about to be canned. Loved "Flash Forward" last year in ABC. Gone. They even left a cliff hanger for a season that would never be. This year, it's "The Event" (on life support) and Detroit 1-8-7 (Lt. Louis Fitch, my kinda cop) who both figured to get whacked. I would rather watch a yak fall asleep than watch Kirstie Alley prance around a stage. But 50 million people can't be wrong, right?

See you tonight at 6p & 11p on WLWT, News 5 in Cincinnati.

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I'm Done With It

So today's news is that the Bengals will now entertain offers for Carson Palmer (after a new collective bargaining agreement is reached between the NFL owners and the players union. That should be the spring of 2013, right?).

Yawn

Palmer is done with us. I'm done with him.

I’ve thought a lot about this lately: Palmer wants exactly what we’ve been doing lately.

He wants a public debate of his trade request, his alleged threat of retirement. He wants it, without being directly involved in it. In short, Palmer wants the publicity, but doesn’t want to work for it. And for the last six weeks or so, we’ve been playing into his hands. You, me and everyone else who’s been debating this issue.

If he’s dumb enough to turn his back on 50-million dollars, if he’s that non competitive that he doesn’t want to play anymore, that’s his life, let him live it. If Mike Brown doesn’t get that he should he solicitous of the most identifiable player on his team, rather than engaging him in some sort of wild west, dirt street stare down, then have at it.

Me, I’m done with it. Bored. They were 4-12 with Carson Palmer last season. They can easily be 4-12 this season without him. Call me when you’ve got your act together.

I’m moving onto the Reds.

Speaking of the Reds, how is it that Edinson Volquez can get into this country with a visa that’s only good for sight seeing, rather than one that helps his team win another division title. Have you heard about this? He was supposed to be the starting pitcher in Sunday’s exhibition opener against the Cleveland Indians. But late last week, the Reds discovered because he’s in the country with a visa that’s good only for a tourist, rather than a wage earner, he can’t pitch. Not in front of a paying crowd. And worse, he now has to go back to the Dominican Republic to apply for a visa that will let him work for the Cincinnati Reds.

Now how did that happen?

Two words: substance abuse. Volquez was suspended for 50 games last season when it was discovered that he was using a substance banned by major league baseball. It was a fertility drug. He says he was taking it, so he and his wife could produce a little Edinson. But Major League Baseball says that drug is really used as a mask, to avoid detection for steroid use.

Because of that, Volquez could only get a visa for sight seeing in our country, not working. Now, it could be a while before he gets the visa he needs to strike opposing batters out, or walk them, depending on how things go.

Do you mean to tell me one of the smart guys in that Reds front office, Walt Jocketty, one of his minions or even Big Bob couldn’t figure this out before now? You actually go ahead and announce Volquez as, not only your exhibition season opening pitcher but your pitching on Opening Day and you don’t know you have this problem? Really?

Here’s a bat signal out to Jean Schmidt, Steve Chabot and Rob Portman: while you’re busy solving the debt crisis that’s consuming all of us, can you pick up the phone and grease the skids so the Reds can get their ‘ace’ back in the country for Opening Day? Somebody in some government office surely could use a couple of diamond club seats for the opener on March 31^st.

It’s called taking one for the team.

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IS SIGNING JOHNNY CUETO LONG TERM A RISK?

A couple of things caught my attention about your Cincinnati Reds this week. And maybe they caught yours too.

They spent all this money on Aroldis Chapman, right? What was it, 30-million dollars, total? The guy throws in excess of 100-miles an hour, consistently. And though he had trouble holding base runners on during his stint in the majors last summer and even though he was a bit wild at times, 100-mph is equaled by few in big league baseball. I envisioned as a top of the rotation guy some day. I thought, this is a guy who could make up with the other guy’s ace, an invaluable piece, particularly when the Reds would arrive at playoff time. Think mature Chapman up against Roy Halladay. That kind of deal.

Turns out, my vision is through a jaundiced eye.

The second suit in command at Great American Ball Park is Bill Bavasi. He’s Walt Jocketty’s right hand man. This week, Bavasi was on the proverbial rubber chicken circuit, speaking at a gathering near Dayton when the subject of Chapman was raised. Here’s what he said….quote…

“A decision has not been made, but I think it is going to be impossible to get him out of the bullpen. You build your pitching staff from the back to the front - if we can shut you down in the eighth and ninth innings, you aren’t going to beat us.

Now I know the numbers game and I know the Reds have six guys right now for five rotation spots. But really? Bavasi made a good point: Chapman as a starter isn’t going to throw in excess of 105 an hour. But what about 98 miles and hour, with a slider that tops out around 93? Who else has that kind of stuff wearing Cincinnati Red?

I get the bullpen importance. It’s clear, they’re thinking ahead of the curve. Francisco Cordero could be gone as soon as mid season and if Chapman is the closer, it makes sense. But to use the kind of ‘stuff’ that Chapman has in a set up or mid relief role, to me, is a waste of his talents and Bob Castellini’s money.

The other thing the Reds did this week was commit a lot of money to pitcher Johnny Cueto. I believe the figure is four years, $27 million. That’s big dough to a little pitcher.

How about this stat that was sent to me by one of our faithful listeners. Since the end of World War II, 1945, only 32 right-handed pitchers under six feet tall have managed to deliver 100 or more starts in their careers. 519 right-handed pitchers over six feet tall have made 100 or more starts. Just 32 of them under six feet. For the record, Cueto stands 5-10 and has made 92 starts.

The all time leader in starts for right-handed pitchers under six feet is Camilo Pascual, who left Cuba and had 404 starts in the majors, one for the Reds when he pitched here briefly in 1969. Pedro Martinez is second on the list with 380 starts.

The point being, under sized right handed pitchers don’t last particularly long in Major League Baseball. Cueto is just eight starts away from reaching the 100 mark. But 15 of the ‘under six foot right handed starters’ never made it to 200 starts. That just a little under half of them.

So is it risky money they Reds have committed to Cueto? If he turns out to be Camilo Pascual or Pedro Martinez, obviously no. But it certainly bears watching, particularly on the back end of that four year days, when Cueto is due to make $10 million in 2014.

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JOEY VOTTO IS RICH & THE REDS HAVE COST CERTAINTY. NOW WHAT?

If a $38 million dollar paycheck could be a 'win win' for both sides, then this is it. Joey Votto has most of his baseball career ahead of him, if he remains injury free. He'll earn tens of millions of dollars in addition to this latest contract he's signed with the Cincinnati Reds. He's set for life. The Reds avoid the nasty process of arbitration, surely to lose with each upcoming round to Votto. The total dollars of this deal most probably would have been for more than the $38 million they're spending now on their NL MVP first baseman.

But what does it mean to you and me?

Nothing.

Look, I'm happy for Votto and I think it's a wise move by the Reds. But the real game wasn't coming for three years anyway. All this deal does is cover Votto's arbitration years. In three years, he can still become a free agent. And if he continues to produce the kind of numbers he has the past two seasons, he'll simply be unaffordable in Reds-land. In St. Louis, Albert Puljos (who incidentally shares the same agent as Votto) might price himself out of that market. And if the Cardinals, who consistently draw three million fans each season, can't afford to pay Puljos (he'll probably command and get $20 million a year from some team), how can the Reds expect to pay Votto when he become eligible for free agency?

Joey Votto wasn't going anywhere for the next three years. The Reds simply made life for him, and them a little more palatable. But for you and me, this deal means nothing. Get back to around Christmas 2013.

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RANDOM THOUGHTS ON A RANDOM THURSDAY NIGHT

The great guessing game in Cincinnati these days is which, if any, of the Bengals assistant coaches are going away. The early line says, none. Don't kid yourself, Marvin Lewis would love to shake up his staff. He. like every Bengals coach since Paul Brown, has been forced to inherit assistant coaches from previous regimes. Lewis was forced to do that in 2003 for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was he was a rookie head coach desperate for a head coach's position.

Lewis wanted to make changes several times since taking the top job in Cincinnati. He got his wish on the defensive side of the ball, going through three coordinators in his eight seasons. Reportedly, two years ago, he wanted offensive coordinator, Bob Bratkowski out. Owner Mike Brown would let Lewis do that. Brown reportedly has a soft spot in his heart for the son of a former coaching legend, perhaps finding a little common ground with Son Of Zeke.

On the final day of the 2010 season, when all signs pointed to Lewis skating from the Bengals, he hinted that he wanted more say in a lot of things in Bengal-dom, including who was on his staff. Quickly, his tune changed. The offers he thought would be coming his way didn't. And by all indications, Lewis went back to Brown, hat in hand, trying to keep his job.

The bigger issue here isn't whether or not Lewis will get to make changes on his staff (he should, every NFL head coach should be able to hire and fire the people who will help determine his success.). The bigger issue is how will the Bengals organization sell a new season of hope to a fan base, which now has to be on the brink of complete disillusion. Hope and belief that better days are close at hand only works if you've given someone a clear indication that there may be some truth in the statement. Seen any of that around here lately?

So it should be no surprise to anyone if the Bengals way of doing business changes little this winter. Mike Brown has never been someone who's offered sacrificial lambs to his now dwindling fan base. And Marvin Lewis may have over played his hand.

Bengals fever catch it.

I'm happy the Reds addressed their left field shortcomings by signing a major league veteran like Fred Lewis. But I still believe Scott Podsednik would have been a better option. But neither are long term answers to that position. Nor is Jonny Gomes. The Reds must find out this summer if either Todd Frazier or Chris Heisey can answer that challenge.

I'm thinking Juan Francisco plays more than a few games at third base this season. Over/under I've got at 40. What are you taking?

We can talk all we want about which team did what this off season. Zach Greinke to the Brewers, Lance Berkman to the Cardinals, Matt Garza to the Cubs, etc. You and I both know the key element to a team winning a division title is health. If the Brewers lose Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder for any appreciable amount of time, they're toast. The Reds stayed relatively healthy in 2010 and won.

I'll take the Steelers over the Ravens this Saturday and the Patriots over the Jets on Sunday in the AFC playoffs. But I feel a lot stronger about the Pats than the Steelers...

NFC? I'm going with the Bears and Packers.

Lebron needs to let it go. He defeated Dan Gilbert last summer.

OJ Mayo gets into a fight with a teammate in a card game on the Memphis Grizzlies charter? Really? Trouble has been hounding him since high school.

I'm enough of a cynic to admit that I believe the soft schedule UC played leading up to their Big East Conference schedule will do as much harm and good come NCAA Tournament selection time. But you've got to give it to Mick Cronin for this: it built confidence for a team that was desperate for it.

But UC better win at least 10 regular season conference games if it wants to get in.

The paper had an article this week from some recruiting guru who thinks Butch Jones will have the best 2011 recruiting class in the Big East. He better. Broad-based interest in UC football is so fragile, it'll sink into the abyss again with another season like this past one.

UK wide receiver and utility man, Randall Cobb declared for the NFL draft today. He says he's been told that he'll go anywhere from rounds two through four. Whoever drafts him is getting a steal. I think his Sunday afternoons will be busy for a long time.

Among my guests this Sunday on 700 WLW will be none other than Sprint Cup driver, Joey Logano. He's won the Nationwide Series race at the Kentucky Speedway each of the last three years. You think he might be the favorite for the first-ever Cup race at Kentucky this July? You think?

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Random Thoughts On The Last Random Tuesday Of 2010

OK 'men of a certain age', 2011 is hours away. Show of hands, who thought they'd make it this far? Liars....

Carson Palmer threw the ball so well Sunday because his offensive coordinator did NOT abandon the running game, despite averaging just 2.7 yards per rush. The Bengals ran the ball 38 times Sunday. Regardless of the yardage, when a team commits that much to the run, the safeties MUST come up for support. That left a lot of one on one coverage. And that's the reason why Palmer was so effective throwing. The Bengals are a team built to run the ball. Why it took them 13 games to figure that out, God only knows. But it's further proof that changes need to be made on the coaching staff. It lost its soul this season...

The Bengals OL had its best day in years, not allowing a sack to a team that came in with a league best 44. Again, that was because the Bengals RAN the ball for 38 snaps.

Bengals left tackle Andrew Whitworth deserves to go to the Pro Bowl. You can make a case that the other four spots on that OL need upgrades, in some instances serious upgrades.

Cedric Benson should be the Bengals number one target for signing team free agents this off season. I'd franchise tag him, except that would be a salary in excess of $10 million and the Bengals already are in dutch to Palmer for $11.5 million. But ask yourself, would the Patriots do it? Would the Colts do it? Would the Steelers do it?

Interesting that the Reds were pursuing RHP Brandon Webb. That would mean another 'shoe' would had to have dropped, with Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Volquez already penciled into the starting rotation in 2011. My guess is, there was another deal in the works. Maybe not so much now.

I still think the Reds pursue Scott Podsednik for at least a platoon in LF, maybe a bigger role.

I think Mick Cronin did the right thing by padding his early season schedule with patsies. Some of those teams, you couldn't find on a map if your name was Rand McNally. But the Bearcats better win at least 10 of their 18 Big East Conference games this season or they'll have no shot at making the NCAA Tournament, even with an expanded field. With one more out of conference game to play (the traditional in city Crosstown Shootout with Xavier) UC will need at least 22 wins and a better than .500 conference schedule. From what I've seen of this team, I think they can pull it off. They'll have to, with a strength of scheduling rating right now of 333rd among all Division I teams.

Best sports Christmas season story has to be the University of Albany offering Xavier guard, Mark Lyons a ride from Albany to Cincinnati on the team bus. Lyons, like a lot of Northeasterners, was stranded in his hometown of Albany by the blizzard that hit the East Coast. His flight was cancelled. He had no way to get back to Cincinnati in time for the game against the Great Danes. So graciously, the Albany head coach offered Lyons a seat on the bus, and the sophomore guard made the nine hour trip sitting with players he'll do his best to beat tonight at the Cintas Center. I couldn't tell you two things about University of Albany basketball, but now I'm a fan. Good stuff....

Heard this song the other day for the first time in a long time. Absolutely beautiful in its simplicity of chord structure and lyrics. Tom Springfield, the brother of the late Dusty Springfield and group leader wrote this for The Seekers. The female lead is Judith Durham, who is just terrific.


We'll see you tonight at 6p and 11p on News 5, right here in the greatest city in the world, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

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So money can't buy you a pennant? I guess you can make that argument, considering the millions of dollars free agent pitcher Cliff Lee left on the table late Monday night when he agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Phillies. Reports had the Yankees paying him $132 million. He reportedly will rejoin the Phillies for $120 million over the same six years the Yankees were willing to pay him $12 million dollars more.

Why don't we just hand the World Series trophy to the Phillies now? A rotation of Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay could be the greatest four man rotation in the history of the game, better than that rotation of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Avery that Atlanta had back in the 90's.

But it begs the question: what exactly does this do for the betterment of baseball? How does this help the smaller market teams stay competitive with bigger market clubs?

For more on that, download my latest Broo View Daily Podcast on the front page of www.kenbroo.com. Will there ever be a salary cap in baseball like in football, basketball and hockey? ESPN's baseball insider Jerry Crasnick has an intriguing thought about that.

Random Thanksgiving Day Thoughts

If the NFL gives NBC the right to 'flex' games out its last six weeks of the season (for better or more attractive games) why then does the NFL saddle viewers with the Cowboys and Lions every Thanksgiving. Let's face it, the Lions are years removed (and at least a few more away) from being a significant team. Dallas has only been interesting in recent years as a 'train wreck'. Seems to me, the three Thanksgiving Day games should be rotated among all 32 teams, so no team has a consistent advantage (or disadvantage such as the teams traveling this week) and the viewers have more attractive match ups.

Vince Young goes Corey Dillon? Remember when Dillon tossed his shoulder pads and helmet into the stands at Paul Brown Stadium on the final day of the 2003 season, when a loss to the Browns ended any playoff hopes and Dillon's Bengals career? Now Young does the same thing in Tennessee? The only thing worse than what Young did was what his team's owner did. He publicly chided both Young and head coach Jeff Fisher, saying they both have to find a way to co-exist. If I'm Fisher, I'm telling Bud Adams to stick it where the sun don't shine. Jeff Fisher is not only the longest tenured coach in the NFL, he's also one of the best. On the open market, he could have his pick of jobs, most of them better than working for the clown that owns the Titans.

Giants' quarterback, Eli Manning hasn't learnesd to do the quarterback slide yet? That effort against the Eagles last Sunday night was not only pathetic, it might have cost his team a shot a playoff berth.....

If a game is on the line and you absolutely need a score to win, who would you take ahead of Tom Brady? Answer: no one.

Carson Palmer may yet be an elite quarterback. But I'm afraid he's 'damaged goods' in Cincinnati. It's not that he's done anything wrong. It's the cast of characters he's been surrounded with in his Bengals career. TO, Ochocinco, Lavernius Coles, to name just a few. Mix in an awful offensive line and players who've simply never lived up to their potential (Chris Perry would come to mind) and whatever career Palmer has left may best be salvaged by an exit from Cincinnati to another team. Don't count on that happening. He's under contract for four years and players don't leave the Bengals until Mike Brown is done with them. I feel badly for Palmer. He seems like a genuinely nice guy....

Dontrelle Willis signs with the Reds? What, Todd Van Poppel wasn't available? Not a bad flyer for the Reds to take. But honestly, what are the Reds going to salavage from Willis that the Marlins and Tigers couldn't? And if you saw him pitch with the Diamondbacks this season, you probably came to the conclusion that you had better stuff than Willis. But, in this holiday season, we wish him well in his comeback....

I admire the 10,000 or so who will wake up Thanksgiving morning and run in the 101st annual Thanksgiving Day Race through downtown Cincinnati. But honestly, at 9am when the race begins, there's no place I'd rather be than in bed. Hope you set a personal best....

Third straight loss for the Miami Heat, losing Wednesday night 104-94 to Orlando. Must be Juwan Howard's faul they're just 8-7. Memo to Pat Riley: this is not fantasy basketball.

Hope you get enough to eat Thursday. And if you do, remember how lucky you are. Millions in our country alone go hungry every day. Support your local Freestore Foodbank. We need to take better care of each other.

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The Case For Scott Podsednik

With congratulations to Joey Votto for winning the 2010 National League MVP award, here's what I think the Reds need to do tomorrow morning. It will be the first step in this off season to insure that they'll be NL Central Division champions again in 2011.

Sign Scott Podsednik. That's right, by tomorrow.

Signing Podsednik will accomplish two things: it will give the Reds a legitimate 150 game left fielder. It will also fill the need for a legitimate lead off batter.

Podsednik is a left handed bat, who has bloomed late in his career into a major leaguer. He didn't become a semi-regular until the age of 27. He's bounced around the league. But everywhere he's been, Podsednik has excelled.

He'll be 35 next Opening Day. Yet Podsednik has retained his speed, stealing at least 30 bases each of the last two seasons. Imagine Podsednik at the top of the order and centerfielder Drew Stubbs hitting seventh, with similar speed. Imagine Podsednik setting the table for Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. He hit .297 last season, played in 134 games with three different teams and drove in 51 runs. He also got on base a very respectable .342. His fielding, while not Gold Glove, is more than adequate. He committed just five errors in 285 chances last season.

The Reds got decent, but sporadic production from Jonny Gomes in 2010. His numbers were heavily skewed to the early part of the season. With Podsednik as the everyday left fielder, it would allow Gomes to do what may play to his strength: spot starting and a lethal bat off the bench. It would also free up Chris Heisey as potential trade bait. Heisey, for whatever reason, does not seem to be a player of choice with the current Reds regime, limited to spot starts and bench work, hardly worthy of the second best prospect in the organization after the 2009 season.

Podsednik will cost the Reds about $4 million for a one year deal, if signed now. They could risk waiting later in the winter to sign him and hope his price goes down. That may prove to be a fools game. After Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, Podsednik would be the next best option for a team looking for outfield help.

The Reds are looking for outfield help. Signing Scott Podsednik should be a priority for the Reds.

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While waiting to see if Dusty Baker returns to manage the Reds after this season....

What if the Reds miss being the second seed in the NL Playoffs by one game? How important would they then think last night's game against the Astros was? The line up the Reds ran out to the field Tuesday night would have looked right at home in Louisville. Why did it Baker start the likes of Juan Francisco, Yonder Alonso, Corky Miller and others? Baker said, historically, few teams start their regulars the night after clinching. Really?

Look, I'm all for celebrating and blowing off steam. The MLB season is a long, long process. But the name of the game has always been two fold: make the playoffs, secure home field advantage. Why? Because for awhile now, the only way you can avoid the Phillies is to finish right behind them. With four games to play, the Giants now have a two game lead on the Reds for that second seed. They won last night, playing all of their regulars and moving pitcher Tim Lincecum up a day to start. The Reds were took pooped from partying the night before to start anyone of significance.

Their reward may be getting Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels in the first three games of the Division Playoffs.

Bengals placekicker, Mike Nugent, found out today he's been named the AFC special teams player of the month. Nice deal. And Nugent has been a nice find. He's been consistently good on field goals and extra points. And his kickoffs have found the end zone, more often than not. What has to be refreshing to head coach, Marvin Lewis, is to have a kicker who is reliable inside the parameters of range and emotion. Shayne Graham had a booming leg. But too often, when the situation called for a 'big kick', Graham withered.

The worm can turn on a kicker in a matter of moments. Graham has certainly found that out, as he's not unemployed. But so far, so good for Nugent, who grew up rooting for the Bengals.

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Eventually the Reds will clinch and this piece of drama will be over. Might happen tonight. As we speak today, the magic number remains at one.

But beyond that are some real question. And the answers don’t appear to be a clear as the questions are today. Here is a fact that this team can’t get away from. In 16 road games against teams still contending for playoff spots, the Reds have two wins. Two. That’s it. And while it’s great to beat up on the weak teams, you’re supposed to do that after all, those teams are going home in a week. The teams still standing have the Reds number. They’re 2-5 against the Phillies this season, including an oh-for in four games out in the city of Brotherly Love this summer.

Against the Giants, it’s a little better, 3-4. Against the Braves, 3-3, 0-2 in Georgia. The Reds 3-4 against San Diego. Those aren’t numbers that give you a whole lot of confidence heading into the playoffs. They’re 10-13 so far in Septmeber with a disturbing 95 runs allowed so far this month.

In a lot of ways, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. The Reds have played with a short roster most of the season. Players who’ve been hurt have been simply held out of games, rather than sent to the disabled list. When you only have 22 or 23 going up against the other guy’s 25, games become difficult to manage. And the Reds don’t have an ‘ace’, that top of the rotation guy who can take the ball and match up against the other team’s best. If they get the Giants in round one, who matches with Cain or Lincecum? If they get the Phillies, who matches up with any of that teams top three.

But funny things happen when you get to the post season. Players who seem pedestrian during the summer can grab the spotlight. Reggie Jackson may have been crowned Mister October in New York. But in the 1978 World Series against the Dodgers, it was Brian Doyle filling in for the injured Willie Randolph who hit .478 and led the Yankees to the championship.

In a short series, pitching most often carries the day. He with the better arms tends to have the better body of work. But sometimes, not quite so often, it’s the team with the best fielding and situational hitting, the team with the extra guy or two who can add a dynamic to the game that wins the game. If you want a reason to believe that a team like the Reds, a team that’s struggled most of this year against the better clubs, has a puncher’s chance, that’s it.

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