THE BROO VIEW with Ken Broo

IS SIGNING JOHNNY CUETO LONG TERM A RISK?

A couple of things caught my attention about your Cincinnati Reds this week. And maybe they caught yours too.

They spent all this money on Aroldis Chapman, right? What was it, 30-million dollars, total? The guy throws in excess of 100-miles an hour, consistently. And though he had trouble holding base runners on during his stint in the majors last summer and even though he was a bit wild at times, 100-mph is equaled by few in big league baseball. I envisioned as a top of the rotation guy some day. I thought, this is a guy who could make up with the other guy’s ace, an invaluable piece, particularly when the Reds would arrive at playoff time. Think mature Chapman up against Roy Halladay. That kind of deal.

Turns out, my vision is through a jaundiced eye.

The second suit in command at Great American Ball Park is Bill Bavasi. He’s Walt Jocketty’s right hand man. This week, Bavasi was on the proverbial rubber chicken circuit, speaking at a gathering near Dayton when the subject of Chapman was raised. Here’s what he said….quote…

“A decision has not been made, but I think it is going to be impossible to get him out of the bullpen. You build your pitching staff from the back to the front - if we can shut you down in the eighth and ninth innings, you aren’t going to beat us.

Now I know the numbers game and I know the Reds have six guys right now for five rotation spots. But really? Bavasi made a good point: Chapman as a starter isn’t going to throw in excess of 105 an hour. But what about 98 miles and hour, with a slider that tops out around 93? Who else has that kind of stuff wearing Cincinnati Red?

I get the bullpen importance. It’s clear, they’re thinking ahead of the curve. Francisco Cordero could be gone as soon as mid season and if Chapman is the closer, it makes sense. But to use the kind of ‘stuff’ that Chapman has in a set up or mid relief role, to me, is a waste of his talents and Bob Castellini’s money.

The other thing the Reds did this week was commit a lot of money to pitcher Johnny Cueto. I believe the figure is four years, $27 million. That’s big dough to a little pitcher.

How about this stat that was sent to me by one of our faithful listeners. Since the end of World War II, 1945, only 32 right-handed pitchers under six feet tall have managed to deliver 100 or more starts in their careers. 519 right-handed pitchers over six feet tall have made 100 or more starts. Just 32 of them under six feet. For the record, Cueto stands 5-10 and has made 92 starts.

The all time leader in starts for right-handed pitchers under six feet is Camilo Pascual, who left Cuba and had 404 starts in the majors, one for the Reds when he pitched here briefly in 1969. Pedro Martinez is second on the list with 380 starts.

The point being, under sized right handed pitchers don’t last particularly long in Major League Baseball. Cueto is just eight starts away from reaching the 100 mark. But 15 of the ‘under six foot right handed starters’ never made it to 200 starts. That just a little under half of them.

So is it risky money they Reds have committed to Cueto? If he turns out to be Camilo Pascual or Pedro Martinez, obviously no. But it certainly bears watching, particularly on the back end of that four year days, when Cueto is due to make $10 million in 2014.

This blog may not be reproduced, re-transmitted or re-purposed in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written consent of Ken Broo.