THE BROO VIEW with Ken Broo

Good Monday Morning!

Walt Jocketty is CIA all the way. Stealth. The only one who knows what he’s up to is him. Remember the trade last year for Scott Rolen? Didn’t see that one coming, did we? Aroldis Chapman? Fidel Castro didn’t see that one coming either. So today, as we sit here with your Cincinnati Reds a game and a half out of first place, who knows what the silver fox is up to? Let’s hope he’s up to something. Because, as constructed, this Reds team isn’t good enough to win their division. And worse, the Cardinals haven’t made their big move yet. And you know that’s coming.

Here’s what the Reds don’t have that they need to be considered serious contenders: they need power pitchers in their bullpen. They need a legitimate number one starting pitcher. Mike Leake? Nice story, but the guy has only got so many more miles on him. The way they’re doing the math at Great American Ball Park, he’ll be out of gas by early September, or just in time for what could be a showdown series with the Cardinals in St. Louis. Bronson Arroyo? Historically, he’s a .500 pitcher and there aren’t too may legit number one starting pitchers who’ve been called that. Aaron Harang careens from good to bad like mood swings. Johnny Cueto throws too many pitches and lasts too few innings. Homer Bailey’s return has no arrival date and Sam Lecure, a month ago, was the answer to the question “Who’s That?”

It’s not Jocketty’s fault. But it’s his problem. This franchise stopped developing starting pitching at Scott Scudder. Richie Gardner, Ty Howington, Dustin Mosely, Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner. The list of first round pitching selections by the Cincinnati Reds from 1999 through 2003 is astoundingly bad. Jim Bowden’s barren field has been left to Dan O’Brien, Wayne Krivsky and Walt Jocketty to sow.

But the man in the chair now has a decision to make. He knows he doesn’t have a pitcher that matches up with Chris Carpenter, or Roy Halladay, or Clayton Kershaw, or Ubaldo Jiminez. Jocketty can find one. He can go to the Mariners and ask about Cliff Lee, or the Royals and ask about Zach Greinke. But it will cost him, in prospects and money. Trading for now, could hurt the future.

Except, there is no future in baseball. Baseball, like every other professional sport is day to day. We hear that 2011 will be the year the Reds will blossom with their prospects ready to help the big league club. But seasons don’t translate. Teams don’t get to pick up where they left off, one season to the next. What guarantees are there for 2011? Will Scott Rolen stay healthy, and as effective as he’s been this season? Will Jonny Gomes hit in 2011 like he’s hitting now? Can anyone say for certain that arm injuries won’t infest the Reds key pitchers?

The 1999 Cincinnati Reds were similar, in a lot of ways to this current club. Bowden went out and traded for Juan Guzman. He went 6-3 and got the Reds to within a whisker of the playoffs. But the Reds paid a price. They gave up BJ Ryan to Baltimore, who turned out to be a very good closer.

In 2006, Wayne Krivsky traded two everyday players to get, at the time, the two best bullpen pitchers available. It turned out to be a lose-lose for both the Reds and Nationals. Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez were busts in DC. Gary Majewski arrived here hurt. Bill Bray has been nothing but a rumor since the deal.

Now, like Bowden and Krivsky before him, Jocketty must make a calculated decision. He needs to decide if his team is a player or two away from making the playoffs. And then he needs to do something about it, without being completely beholden to the future.

The playoffs don’t come our way very often. That’s why Bowden and Krivsky did what they did. It didn’t work out either time. But you’ve got to try. And you have to start trying now. Play it smart,. But play it quickly.

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