Sunday, July 11, 2010

The Reds are one game up at the All Star break. It’s not that being in first place at the break guarantees anything. In fact, baseball history gives up about 15 strong examples of teams that have looked woefully out of it at this point, that’ve rallied to win division titles or pennants. But being in first at this time of the year, this late in the season, should be a strong psychological boost to a ballclub.

Except, look what we’ve seen the last three ballgames.

Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Travis Wood have each delivered outstanding starts in Philadelphia. And the Reds have nothing to show for it. Nothing. The offense has left small armies stranded, on base, in each of the last two nights. And the bullpen has failed this team in all three games.

You want names? Ryan Hanigan whiffing twice last night with a chance, in each at bat, to drive home the go ahead run. Jay Bruce hitting into a double play Friday night, turning a potential three run inning into an inning that produced only one run. And pick a name in that bullpen. They’ve all had a hand in these losses. Jordan Smith Thursday night. Francisco Cordero and the usually reliable Arthur Rhodes Friday night. Bill Bray and Logan Ondrusak on Saturday night.

And now, after this afternoon’s game in Philly, the Reds have some serious thinking to do. It’s good they’ve got five days to figure things out. But figure things out they must, if they’re going to contend this season.

Here’s what we believe. The Cardinals aren’t going away And the six head to head games the Reds have left with St. Louis will go a long way in determining who wins the NL Central. Don’t bank on a wild card. The Wes and the East divisions have strong contenders for that.

Here’s what we know: as presently constructed, the Reds will have a tough time outgunning the Cardinals. Maybe Travis Wood and Mike Leake can match up well with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. But who in that Reds line up will be able to hit off either of those guys? Not even a perfect game for eight innings from Wood was enough last night.

So now, if you’re Walt Jocketty, what do you do? It’s less than three weeks to the trade deadline and you’ve just missed out on the best pitcher on the market. You know you have Edinson Volquez back by next weekend. You know that Aroldis Chapman might be here soon after that to give your bullpen a power arm. But will that be enough? Wood, Leake, Bronson Arroyo, Cueto and a combination of Aaron Harang, Matt Maloney and Homer Bailey might be good enough. You know you’ve got a problem with your closer. So do you pursue someone like the Mariners’ David Aardsma? He’s not pitching well this year. He’s allowed 17 runs in 27 innings of work. But he saved 38 of 42 chances last year. And Aardsma, while making just $2,75 is arbitration eligible after this season. But he’s also an established closer, insurance just in case Francisco Cordero continues to refuse to pitch on the inside part of the plate.

What ever he chooses to do, Jocketty must do something. This team is hanging onto first place because the Cardinals have chosen to lose everytime the Reds have. That won’t continue. Somewhere there’s an arm that can come in and stabilize a shaky bullpen, someone that Dusty can trust on a nightly basis. Somewhere, there’s a solid bad that can come off the bench and pinch hit and, every so often provided solid offense and defense when you need to rest Scott Rolen. Jocketty must do something to show to the players that the team is committed to winning this season. Players aren’t dumb. They like their team mates, but they also know what the team needsl Jocketty knows they know. And if the general manager is smart, which I know he is, he’ll get it done quickly.

You don’t choose when you contend. It’s chosen for you The Reds have been chose this year. Now it’s up to Jocketty to make sure it will happen.

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