Saturday, March 22, 2008

Here’s what I’ve taken away from the first round and a half of this NCAA Tournament. There are no great teams anymore in college basketball. None. I think it’s the one year rule, early entry, the fact that just about every team in the top six conferences plays on TV virtually every game…all of that are the reasons why there are no great teams. Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, they’re reputations, not greatness. Not anymore. The on court difference between a UCLA and say, a Villanova is one player. The difference between great and good is that razor thin.

You know, when I was a senior at Ohio, then known as Ohio University, we played UCLA in Pauley Pavilon. UCLA had Keith Wilks, Bill Walton and the wizard, John Wooden on the bench. We had Denny Rusch, Walter Luckett and a coach who’s nickname was Gentleman, Genntleman Jim Snyder on the bench. We had no shot of keeping this game within 20.

For the most part, in Division I basketball, those kind of days are gone. No team, like UCLA, is in any danger of going on an 88-game winning streak.

Want more proof that there are no great teams in college basketball anymore. Take a look at your bracket this morning. It was a mess before the second games of opening day.

This is important to understand, given where Xavier is this morning. Yes, it’s in the round of 16. It’s one win away from equaling the best NCAA Tournament run in school history. But what team still standing today has better guards than X? Are the inside players that UCLA, Stanford and Kansas have really that much better than Xavier’s? No. Which is why I believe there is not reason to believe that Xavier can’t make it to the Final 4. West Virginia is hot. So was Georgia. UCLA has talented big men, some with outstanding pedigree, so did Purdue. I’m not predicting Xavier will make the final four. Because to do that, would run against my theory that no great college teams are anywhere this morning. But I am says that the path to the final four is as wide open to Xavier today as it is to any other team.

Xavier is the right team, with the right combination of players are the right time in the game of college basketball. Terrific guards, good inside players, smart coach and a team that plays excellent defense. Not saying the final four is going to happen. But tell me today, what team has a better chance of getting to San Antonio, right now, than Xavier. I’ll tell you: no team.

We are exactly one week from opening day. One week from tomrrow, the games start to count. Bronson Arroyo was smacked around pretty good by the Astros Saturday. He says he’s not concernred. I am. Arroyo pitched a grand total of six innings before Saturday. He want six yesterday and gave up four runs, three earned.

What I’m more concerned about. And what I’d like to talk about today, is what’s going on in centerfield. Is there anyone around here who’s wondering exactly what the Reds smart guys are thinking about?

I have a theory. And I know there are a lot of people who think exactly the opposite. My theory is, you never trade someone who has the potential to win 162 games a year for you, for a guy who can potentially win a game for you once every five days. In other words, you never trade an everyday player for a pitcher. Unless that pitcher’s name is Greg Maddux and the year is 1995.

But I understand some of baseball’s smart guys don’t agree with that. And that’s OK. So when the Reds wanted to deal Josh Hamilton in the off season and they got the Rangers’ best pitching prospect, Edinson Volquoz, I said, OK, it opoens up a spot for Jay Bruce in the outfield. Sounds good to me. Well, where is the best prospect the Reds farm system has produced since Johnny Bench today? I’ll tell you where: on some back lot, on some water logged turf in Sarasota. The big club plays on the Big One this afternoon. Jay Bruce will be playing on a field with a chain link back stop..

Your opening day centerfielder will be Corey Patterson. The Reds traded away one of the top five outfield arms in baseball to open up a spot for Corey Patterson. Sounds like a plan to me!

And what, exactly did Jay Bruce do to lose his fight for a starting spot to Corey Patterson? He got hurt, missed five games with a sore leg. He only hit ‘262’. There is a theory now, that Jay Bruce will be a better corner outfielder than a centerfielder. I wonder if that theory has anything to do with Adam Dunn making 13-million in the final year of his contract and Ken Griffey, Junior, a year away from a team option 16-million dollar season?

Here’s what would have been the best path for the Reds to travel this spring with the man voted the best player in all of minor league baseball last season. Are you ready? Stand by. This is a radical concept that may need some thinking. Why not just begin the spring by telling Bruce: centerfield is your job this season. You have nothing else to prove by playing another inning of minor league baseball. Son, grab a bat, go up there and hit. The job is yours even if you fall flat on your face. We have that much faith in you and your talents. If I’m a major league baseball prospect and my manager or general manager told me that, I’d run through the left field wall for them.

Instead, what Jay Bruce was told was: go to Louisville. We’ll call you when we need you. Jay Bruce, the best prospect the Reds have developed since Johnny Bench, the best in over 40-years. Losing out in the battle for centerfield to Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper. Norris Hopper, who’s hitting ‘238’ this spring and has gotten on base a grand total of 28-percent of his at bats. A man still looking for his first major league home run.

Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volqoz. OK, fine, Marge Schott decimated the Reds scouting department so badly during her regime it couldn’t find a pitching prospect with a GPS. I understand it. But you open an outfield spot and give it to a combination of Patterson and Hopper? And you send the best player in all of minor league baseball back to the minors? 

Really?

I may be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. But I think this is a big mistake.

Check out my web site:  www.kenbroo.com