Thursday, January 22, 2009

What you see, is what you get, as the Dramatics sang back in 1972 (or Brittany a couple of years ago...ugh) and as Bob Castellini basically said today. The Reds will make no more major player moves before spring training. It's the economy, stupid (apologies to the Bush-Clinton '92 campaign). With the economy in the dumper, Castellini is done spending money. The Reds payroll will top out in the mid $70 million range this season, roughly what it was last year.

So it raises the quetion, why should we believe that this team will be any better than the team that finished 23 and a half games out of first place in 2008? The answer is, we shouldn't. It's the same pitching staff, with the addition of bullpen tosser Arthur Rhodes. It's the same 'everyday 8', with the exception of Ramon Hernandez behind the plate and Wily Tavares in centerfield. The offense lost 100 rbi per season when Adam Dunn left. And even though Hernandez averages about 64 rbi a season, the Reds cathers last season combined for 75 rbi. Tavares will help with defense and he swiped 68 bases last year. But remember, the previous two years before coming to the Reds, the much maligned Corey Patterson stole 82 bases for Baltimore. Worse, Tavares' on base percentage in '08 (.308) was dangerously close to Patterson's awful number (.238).

So how would you expect this group to seriously challenge the Cubs or Cardinals? I don't. In the past few weeks, Castellini has had an epiphany. He's either figured out, or has been told, that even with adding another big bat (Bobby Abreu anyone), the risk of paying good money in a bad economy wouldn't be worth the potential reward, a pennant. Grief to dollars, we like to call it in the swinging, swirling world of broadcasting.

Yes, sometimes teams come out of nowhere to win championships. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays. But more often than not, those teams have laid a solid foundation for winning, by drafting smartly and filling in with prudent free agent sigings. The Reds haven't been known for either recently. As late as 2003, most of their free agent signings were washed up players looking for one last payday. And from the mid-90's until 2003, the Reds were unable to draft a pitcher who effectively threw at the big league level.

Now Castellini is telling his fans to be patient for at least another season. If you've won something, anything in the past 13-seasons, that would be a lot easier sell than where the Reds are coming from. The future isn't quite yet now.