Sunday, July 12, 2009

Good Monday Morning!

Here were are, at the All Star Break and your Cincinnati Reds are a full five games out of first place. And, their phenom is gone for a long time (how long we’ll learn later today) with a broken wrist More on Jay Bruce in a moment.

The Reds have flirted with contending, teased us and ultimately let us down a lot through these first 89 games. But whether you choose to believe in this team or not, they are just a mild hot streak away from first place. As we like to says, in the National League Central, all things are possible, first place and last.

There’s great debate around here, you and I have participated, as to whether or not the Reds should trade for players, or simply trade players away and build for next year. The Reds have been building for next year so often, you’d swear the calendar is stuck on December 31st. If the Banks Project were the Reds, it would have been built and rebuilt twice by now.

But as that debate rages, whether to buy or sell, there a more important thing the Reds have to consider. It doesn’t involve trading, waiting until next year or that $10 million monstrosity it left field called a scoreboard.

The most important thing the Reds, the smart guys in the front office, the most important thing they have to deal with is Jay Bruce. He is the centerpiece of the Reds future, the poster boy for ticket sales, the golden boy as he quickly ascended through the depths of the Reds minor league system. And he can not hit a breaking ball to save his life.

The old line about a struggling ballplayer is ‘he can’t hit his weight’. Bruce can barely hit the New York City area code. Today, he is stuck at .207 The Golden Boy is broken, or at least his wrist and his swing are. Bruce can still hit for modest power (all he seems to be able to do is hit home runs) and he can still throw runners out from right field like he’s channeling Paul O’Neill. But at the plate, Bruce seems to be channeling Adam Dunn. Except Dunn never hit .207 for a season. Came close once, but never like this.

Remember, this is Jay Bruce, the Reds number one draft pick in 2005. Dan O’Brien’s ultimate gift to the Reds near death minor league system. Jay Bruce who had a meteoric rise from single A to Triple A all in the span of less than 200-games. The Can’t Miss Kid with the ability to hit the ball to all fields AND hit for power. His first two weeks in the ‘bigs’ were astounding. Offensively, Bruce has been in a free fall since.

Saturday night in New York, sheer hustle (or a bad break on a shallow fly ball, you take your pick) caused Bruce to suffer a broken wrist. You probably saw the highlight ad nauseum (full warning, I’m showing it again tonight on WLWT at 6pm). The last graphic bone broke witnessed on live television this horrific was probably the night that the NY Giants Lawrence Taylor snapped Joe Theismann’s leg in two. It probably ends one of the most disappointing seasons for a Reds player in their history.

Along the way, from Sarasota, to Chattanooga to Louisville, Bruce had a smooth, can’t miss swing. A couple of Springs ago, as he was working in the Reds minor league complex in Sarasota, I spent a morning watching Bruce take batting practice. His swing was effortless, even and the phenom was spraying the ball to all fields. Bruce was The Natural. I don’t know if it was all God given ability or if a hitting coach had worked with him to hone his swing. My guess is, it was a little of both. But, it was fun to watch him work.

And as I was thinking about Bruce and his problems at the plate this week, it seemed reasonable to me, that at some point in his minor league career, a manager or a hitting coach got through to him, connected with him, helped Bruce find the swing that got him to the Majors. Would it not make sense to send the one time phenom back to work with that coach?

The Reds and Bruce have a golden opportunity now. Of course, his wrist has to heal before any of this could happen, but why not send back to his past to ensure his future? If he’s to play again this season, he’ll have to do a minor league rehab stint. So the situation, perhaps embarrassing to a player under normal conditions, will take care of itself.

Sometimes, sending a player back to the minors to fix a flaw in his game works. The Reds tried it a couple of years ago with Edwin Encarnacion, and he returned to hit fairly well. They tried it with Austin Kearns, and it had no effect on him. Lately, it has seemed to have worked with Homer Bailey.

The arguments against it are pretty clear. One: who else do the Reds have right now that can play right field.? Two: what’s to be gained by sending Bruce back to Triple-A to beat up on inferior pitching? The answer to question one is, no one. The answer to question two is not much.

Except….this is a long term investment in a player you’ve chosen to build your franchise around. Bruce has tremendous defensive talents and can hit for power. His problem is consistency from at bat to at bat, and hitting the breaking ball. Jay Bruce is cost certain for the next three seasons. Financially, it’s in the Reds best interest to make it work. With most young players, it’s a marathon. And Jay Bruce fixed, hitting for average and power long term, trumps anything that’s happening this season.

Friday, I called Pete Rose and asked him to join me on my Sunday morning radio show on 700 WLW in Cincinnati. Rose agreed to an interview. But before agreeing (I had left voice mail for him and didn’t realize he had done this before he returned my call) Rose placed a call to the Reds clubhouse in New York, at Citi Field. He wanted to speak personally with Bruce. They talked about hitting for about 20-minutes on Friday night. Rose told me, he gave Bruce six minor adjustments to work on, but emphatically told the young outfielder do NOT change your swing. That. Rose says, is suicidal for a hitter. He also told Bruce to not believe that he’s in a slump. Rose maintains if a pitcher believes a hitter is in a slump, he’ll own him. It’s a ‘lull’, Rose says, that Bruce must believe he’s in the middle of. He says he promised Bruce he’d watch his games over the next week or so and call him back with some more advice. Now, of course, that’s on hold. But if Jay Bruce wants to return to the kind of hitter he was in the minors, maybe it’s worth his while to buy a plane ticket to LA and seek out Rose for some personal coaching. Why not? The Hit King has already taken an interest