Tuesday, March 23, 2010

So why all the upsets in the NCAA Tournament so far? I've heard a lot of talk about that this week. You know why? There are only about five dominant teams in college basketball anymore. Ten years ago, the number was probably around 12. 20 years ago, it was close to 20.

So why the fall off?

TV

TV is the great equalizer in everything. Has been and, in some form or another, always will be when it comes to sports. Ask any college coach when he's out recruiting what the two things a potential player is interested in. It's TV exposure and playing minutes. Everything else falls into the category 'also'.

20 years ago, even with ESPN, only a fraction of the games that're televised now actually made it onto the screen. You'd be lucky to see a half dozen games a week. Now how many games are televised? You can find a half dozen games on at the same time most weeknights, many more on weekends. The TV 'stick' that schools like Indiana, UCLA, North Carollina, UK and Duke could hold out with a carrot on the end back in the '80's and '90's is now something just about every Division I program can offer. 20 years ago, you would have been laughed at if you suggested that Pitt, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Xavier were elite Division I basketball programs. They got their games on television, if lucky, three or four times a year. Now, you can find just everyone of their games on the tube every season.

20 years ago, the elite basketball programs would over recruit a position. They could, because they were the big boys of college ball. So a player who could've started at Tulsa or South Florida or Butler would have taken a scholarship offer from North Carolina, or Maryland or Indiana because they were the elite programs, with their games televised all of the time. Not so anymore.

Now with three main ESPN channels and their various college exclusive packages, with conferences starting their own cable channels and with game available on-line, players who choose non traditional powers can be assured they will appear on some sort of broadcast.

TV exposure=playing minutes=programs that have surged to the top of college basketball in the last 20 years.

What's happening in college basketball today should be no surprise to anyone, when you look at how the dynamics have changed, just in the last 20 years