Monday, June 23, 2008

It’s a tricky thing in the world of professional sports. Sometimes when it appears that you’re on the verge of figuring it out, putting it all together, you’re really on the edge of a cliff. The Reds were there. Remember 1999? The day after losing that one game playoff to the Mets, the prevailing opinion was: add another big bat, find just one more starting pitcher and this team is there. No way it doesn’t contend if we could get one more bat and maybe one more decent arm.

The Reds added more than that. They got Junior and Dante Bichette. And Joey Hamilton wasn’t far behind. That was nine years ago. How did all of that work out?

Sometimes, you just know you’re on the verge of figuring it out, putting it all together. Of course, the opposite of that is true. Sometimes, you just know things are in total disrepair. The future seems hopeless and the present need to be torched. I’ll bet you think that’s where the Reds are today. It’s not a tough opinion to form. They have a line-up right now that appears to have four automatic outs. Their ‘ace’ is 3-10 and Bronson Arroyo’s best work this year appears to be JTM commercials. And as bad as those are, that’s not saying a whole lot. Until three months ago, the franchise hasn’t developed a decent starting pitcher since Tom Browning. The Reds minor league system hasn’t produced a decent catcher since Joe Oliver and there appears to be no major league ready outfielders within three years of patrolling Great American Ball Park.

It would appear that the the present is in need of torching.

And yet, anyone who’s watched this team play the last two nights knows it might be a good idea to put down the matches. I’m a big believer and have said here on this radio station numerous times, I don’t think you should ever trade a player who can win a game for you every night, for one who can win a game for you every five days. I don’t believe you should ever trade an everyday player for a pitcher. But I would do the Hamilton for Volquez deal again in a heartbeat. Volquez was simply electrifying on Friday night. Aaron Harang may be the ‘ace’ of this staff. But the crown sits on his head, precariously. Edinson Volquez has the uncanny ability to pitch well under the glare of big city lights, and behave as if he’s tossing a game of backyard whiffle ball. He’s that unaffected.

Darryl Thompson threw too many pitches for five innings of work Saturday. But the Yankees still haven’t hit many of them. In his big league debut, in that same big city glare, Thompson was terrific. In a trade that was brutal for both teams, turns out that deal with the Nationals may be a win for the Reds. Thompson was a throw in, which again proves the point that Jim Bowden wouldn’t know good pitching, even it hit him in his leather pants.

And today, Johnny Cueto gets his turn against the Yankees. Yep, he’s been erratic. His fastball can go flat at times and his breaking ball doesn’t always break. But his ‘stuff’, the catch all baseball term for pitching repertoire, his stuff is big league. Volquez, Thompson, Cueto.

Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips. Jeff Keppinger for that matter too. I heard Chris Welch say this Saturday: In his 17 years in and around Reds baseball, this is best group of young talent he’s seen.

Here’s my point: the best deals are often the ones a general manager never makes. And when I heard this week that a New York newspaper was reporting that Walt Jocketty was on the verge of a fire sale, I cringed, then laughed.

Most of the names that were mentioned, for one reason or another, are untradeable. The numbers may suggest otherwise, but I don’t think this team needs a housecleaning.

The Reds are seven games under ‘500’. They’re 13-and a half games out of first place. They aren’t going to the playoffs this season and they may not deliver to us a winning record. But as we sit and talk here today, we should be thinking like we did in the fall of ’99.

What if the Reds find another arm to go with Harang and the three young guns? What if they can find another good bat, right handed even better, for that line-up…best case scenario a right handed hitting catcher? What else would they need besides ‘that’?

My guess is, there won’t be much of a house-cleaning. Jocketty will be tempted, all general managers are. Maybe Junior leaves, maybe he retires. Maybe they let Dunn walk. Maybe not.

Team owners, GM’s and manager like to say ‘we’re only one or two players away from being a contender’. And the punch line, of course is, yeah and those two players are Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones.

But the feeling I have today is this team is a lot closer than we think to being pretty good, maybe good enough to be something really special next season.

I haven’t felt this way in awhile about our Reds. But that’s what the last couple of games have made me believe. At least I think they have. It’s either that….or last night’s dinner coming back on me.

Where are you on all of this?