Sunday, August 17, 2008

Good Morning!

If you’ve read this blog over the last eight or nine months, you’ve heard me say this at least a hundred times. The reds need to keep Adam Dunn. I haven’t wavered in that. I looked at his age, his durability, his ability to hit for power, work the count, get on base, drive runs in. I tempered all of that with his fielding deficiencies and his infuriating amount of strike outs.

Obviously you listened to me. The Reds obviously did not.

There were a lot of you who would never consider the positives that Dunn brought to the game. And that’s fine. But you have to consider this.
You’re losing who holds 4th place all time in Reds home run hitting history
You’re losing a guy who hit a home run in less than every 14 at bats, who three times produced 100 rbi, 100 walks and 100 run scored seasons. Only one other Reds player has done that. Thanks to the Enquirer’s John Erardi for that. He’ll be joining us in a little bit.

Who does Adam Dunn compare to, statistically at this point in his career? How about Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, how about Barry Bonds? Not my opinion. That’s straight out of Baseball Reference.

And the Reds let him go. They got three players for Dunn, two we know about, one we think we know. One is a 23 year old pitcher in Single-A, coming off Tommy John surgery. The other is a 24 year old catcher who was stuck in triple-A when the Reds got him. We think pitcher Micah Owings is headed here. His arm trouble right now actually had some baseball experts suggesting the Reds may try converting him to an everyday player. For a guy who compares favorably to Reggie Jackson.

I’ve heard this a lot since the deal when down on Monday: well, the Reds couldn’t afford to pay Dunn the dollars he’ll be looking for this winter. I’ve never heard Bob Castellini says that. But if it’s true, then the Reds are playing a fool’s game. You want the numbers that Adam Dunn puts up, you want to run with the big dogs, it’s going to cost you.

If you were in the Dump Dunn camp, I’ll ask you the same question I ask every week, and never seem to get an answer: where are you going to get those 100-rbi he’s taking with him to Arizona?
Opening remarks pp.2

Where is the bat in the Reds line-up that will make the opposing pitcher work the count as well as Adam Dunn did? What bat in that Reds line-up strikes fear into any opposing pitcher’s heart?

It’s never been about Dunn. It’s always been about where the numbers come from. You think they’re in the Reds minor league system? Go look.

You think they Reds will be able to trade for those numbers this off season?
Who do they trade for that? You may get 100-rbi, but it’ll cost you Jay Bruce, or Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips or a combination there of. You can always ask Texas if they’ll send Josh Hamilton back. But my guess is the asking price begins with Edinson Volquez. You think they’ll find 100-rbi on the free agent market this year? Really?

And the last time they did that was when?

Here are the top two free agent outfielders this winter: Pat Burrell now with the Phillies and, Adam Dunn.

The Reds probably have a plan to address all of this. But I couldn’t tell you what it is right now. In the last seven months, they’ve dismissed a man who could win the American League MVP, paid the White Sox four million dollars to take Junior off their hands and they’re sending another four million to the Diamondbacks to be rid of Adam Dunn.

All the while, an entire generation of Reds fans bave grown up knowing nothing but losing.

The business of baseball is more than OPS, OBP, average with two out and runners in scoring position. It’s about selling tickets. Winning sells a lot of tickets. So do star players. Please tell me today, when does the winning begin, and where exactly are the star players.