Wondering If The Reds Season Is Just About Over

Tough to believe, isn't it? Last year, so much promise, so much fun. This year? Not so much. You'll get a lot of answers to the question, 'where did it go wrong'. But I think this season was lost in the winter. Other teams in the Reds division decided to go shopping. The Reds sat that out. Other teams in their division made strategic changes (Cardinals with Berkman, Brewers with Marcum and Greinke and now Rodriguez). The Reds reinvested in their own talent, doing contract extensions with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

You can look this up: rare is the team that repeats as division champ that does NOT do some retooling in the off season.

The Reds front office, including last years MLB Executive Of The Year Walt Jocketty, simply over-valued too many of their players and thought they made even exchanges for the players they lost. Fred Lewis for Laynce Nix? Not even close. Edgar Renteria for Orlando Cabrera? Cabrera isn't tearing it up in Cleveland. But they signed him for $1 mil and Renteria is costing the Reds $2.1 million, minimum this season. He has incentives that kick in with added playing time. Cabrera, though, was a great team leader and it's no small reason why every team he plays for contends. Aroldis Chapman for Arthur Rhodes? Not even close. Chapman has been better lately. But for the first two months of this season, he was a 100 mph disaster.

If I sign the checks at Great American Ball Park, I'm calling both Jocketty and Dusty Baker into my office and asking them why they do what they do. The General Manager didn't make a meaningful change until late last week, when he finally relented and called up AAA shortstop Zach Cozart, who should have been up here early in June. The manager insists on playing veteran players who under perform, at the expense of younger players who show promise.

What kind of message does that send to Reds fans? This one: mediocrity is acceptable. And the same message is delivered to the players in the Reds clubhouse. It's naive, to say nothing of bad business, to think that one season in the last 15 has built up enough equity to carry this team through a season like this. It's 2001, 02, 03 or any other year since 1995 all over again.

There's a line that separates patience from stubbornness. Four games out of first, two games under five hundred and showing absolutely nothing since opening week that would lead you to believe this team is capable of a prolonged winning streak, the Reds have crossed the line.

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So money can't buy you a pennant? I guess you can make that argument, considering the millions of dollars free agent pitcher Cliff Lee left on the table late Monday night when he agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Phillies. Reports had the Yankees paying him $132 million. He reportedly will rejoin the Phillies for $120 million over the same six years the Yankees were willing to pay him $12 million dollars more.

Why don't we just hand the World Series trophy to the Phillies now? A rotation of Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay could be the greatest four man rotation in the history of the game, better than that rotation of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Avery that Atlanta had back in the 90's.

But it begs the question: what exactly does this do for the betterment of baseball? How does this help the smaller market teams stay competitive with bigger market clubs?

For more on that, download my latest Broo View Daily Podcast on the front page of www.kenbroo.com. Will there ever be a salary cap in baseball like in football, basketball and hockey? ESPN's baseball insider Jerry Crasnick has an intriguing thought about that.

Eventually the Reds will clinch and this piece of drama will be over. Might happen tonight. As we speak today, the magic number remains at one.

But beyond that are some real question. And the answers don’t appear to be a clear as the questions are today. Here is a fact that this team can’t get away from. In 16 road games against teams still contending for playoff spots, the Reds have two wins. Two. That’s it. And while it’s great to beat up on the weak teams, you’re supposed to do that after all, those teams are going home in a week. The teams still standing have the Reds number. They’re 2-5 against the Phillies this season, including an oh-for in four games out in the city of Brotherly Love this summer.

Against the Giants, it’s a little better, 3-4. Against the Braves, 3-3, 0-2 in Georgia. The Reds 3-4 against San Diego. Those aren’t numbers that give you a whole lot of confidence heading into the playoffs. They’re 10-13 so far in Septmeber with a disturbing 95 runs allowed so far this month.

In a lot of ways, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. The Reds have played with a short roster most of the season. Players who’ve been hurt have been simply held out of games, rather than sent to the disabled list. When you only have 22 or 23 going up against the other guy’s 25, games become difficult to manage. And the Reds don’t have an ‘ace’, that top of the rotation guy who can take the ball and match up against the other team’s best. If they get the Giants in round one, who matches with Cain or Lincecum? If they get the Phillies, who matches up with any of that teams top three.

But funny things happen when you get to the post season. Players who seem pedestrian during the summer can grab the spotlight. Reggie Jackson may have been crowned Mister October in New York. But in the 1978 World Series against the Dodgers, it was Brian Doyle filling in for the injured Willie Randolph who hit .478 and led the Yankees to the championship.

In a short series, pitching most often carries the day. He with the better arms tends to have the better body of work. But sometimes, not quite so often, it’s the team with the best fielding and situational hitting, the team with the extra guy or two who can add a dynamic to the game that wins the game. If you want a reason to believe that a team like the Reds, a team that’s struggled most of this year against the better clubs, has a puncher’s chance, that’s it.

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The Reds are one game up at the All Star break. It’s not that being in first place at the break guarantees anything. In fact, baseball history gives up about 15 strong examples of teams that have looked woefully out of it at this point, that’ve rallied to win division titles or pennants. But being in first at this time of the year, this late in the season, should be a strong psychological boost to a ballclub.

Except, look what we’ve seen the last three ballgames.

Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Travis Wood have each delivered outstanding starts in Philadelphia. And the Reds have nothing to show for it. Nothing. The offense has left small armies stranded, on base, in each of the last two nights. And the bullpen has failed this team in all three games.

You want names? Ryan Hanigan whiffing twice last night with a chance, in each at bat, to drive home the go ahead run. Jay Bruce hitting into a double play Friday night, turning a potential three run inning into an inning that produced only one run. And pick a name in that bullpen. They’ve all had a hand in these losses. Jordan Smith Thursday night. Francisco Cordero and the usually reliable Arthur Rhodes Friday night. Bill Bray and Logan Ondrusak on Saturday night.

And now, after this afternoon’s game in Philly, the Reds have some serious thinking to do. It’s good they’ve got five days to figure things out. But figure things out they must, if they’re going to contend this season.

Here’s what we believe. The Cardinals aren’t going away And the six head to head games the Reds have left with St. Louis will go a long way in determining who wins the NL Central. Don’t bank on a wild card. The Wes and the East divisions have strong contenders for that.

Here’s what we know: as presently constructed, the Reds will have a tough time outgunning the Cardinals. Maybe Travis Wood and Mike Leake can match up well with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. But who in that Reds line up will be able to hit off either of those guys? Not even a perfect game for eight innings from Wood was enough last night.

So now, if you’re Walt Jocketty, what do you do? It’s less than three weeks to the trade deadline and you’ve just missed out on the best pitcher on the market. You know you have Edinson Volquez back by next weekend. You know that Aroldis Chapman might be here soon after that to give your bullpen a power arm. But will that be enough? Wood, Leake, Bronson Arroyo, Cueto and a combination of Aaron Harang, Matt Maloney and Homer Bailey might be good enough. You know you’ve got a problem with your closer. So do you pursue someone like the Mariners’ David Aardsma? He’s not pitching well this year. He’s allowed 17 runs in 27 innings of work. But he saved 38 of 42 chances last year. And Aardsma, while making just $2,75 is arbitration eligible after this season. But he’s also an established closer, insurance just in case Francisco Cordero continues to refuse to pitch on the inside part of the plate.

What ever he chooses to do, Jocketty must do something. This team is hanging onto first place because the Cardinals have chosen to lose everytime the Reds have. That won’t continue. Somewhere there’s an arm that can come in and stabilize a shaky bullpen, someone that Dusty can trust on a nightly basis. Somewhere, there’s a solid bad that can come off the bench and pinch hit and, every so often provided solid offense and defense when you need to rest Scott Rolen. Jocketty must do something to show to the players that the team is committed to winning this season. Players aren’t dumb. They like their team mates, but they also know what the team needsl Jocketty knows they know. And if the general manager is smart, which I know he is, he’ll get it done quickly.

You don’t choose when you contend. It’s chosen for you The Reds have been chose this year. Now it’s up to Jocketty to make sure it will happen.

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Good Monday morning to you....

I’m having a hard time trying to figure out what a lot of people have against Dusty Baker. You listen to this show, you listen to any of the talk shows in the Greater Cincinnati area and you hear a constant grumbling about his way of managing. Even the support he has around here is tepid at best.

I guess Bob Boone and Jerry Narron are officially off the hook.

And now comes a couple of fresh attacks on his style, one from Baseball Prospectus and another from Sports Illustrated. In each, the writers question exactly how Dusty manages to keep managing. The guy who wrote the SI piece is Joe Sheehan. We’re going to hear from him in a little bit. His contention is that the only thing that made Baker as successful as he was in San Francisco was putting Barry Bonds in the line-up every game. The reason for the article this week was the Reds signing of Gary Matthews, Junior. I’ll admit, I don’t get that move. Matthews appeared to be washed up playing for the Mets this year and the Angels the two years prior to that.

He appeared to be stealing the 22-million he’s made the last two seasons.

Sheehan’s worry, and mine too for that matter, is that signing Matthews could cost at bats for Jay Bruce, or Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey, a man who needs to be playing everyday somewhere, and not rotting on the bench here.

I’ll give you that Baker stuck way too long with Corey Patterson. He was a latter day Eric Milton. But what other choice did Baker really have? And besides, a general manager spends an owners money on a player, the player should be good enough to play.

I’m not here to carry water for Baker. He’s big enough to do that for himself. But what I’m hearing a lot these days is that the Reds are winning despite Baker. Don’t think that’s true.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: there’ve been two managers this town has embraced and accepted since Sparky Anderson left town: Pete Rose and Lou Piniella. Davey Johnson was the last guy to manage a Reds team to the playoffs. He was run out of town by the owner and the fan base here didn’t produce a whimper about it. Jack McKeon? Too old. Bob Boone? Thought he invented the game. Dave Miley? Minor leaguer. Jerry Narron? Talked like he was an escapee from the cast of Hee Haw.

In a way, Dusty Baker is a lot like the general manager we had around here a few years ago, Dan O’Brien. O’Brien inherited a mess. Under Marge Schott, the Reds minor league system went to hell in a handbag. She let Jim Bowden go out and buy aging veterans, but never saw the need to build a franchise the way you have to do it in a town like Cincinnati, through player development. Carl Lindner kept Bowden. Bowden’s talents at finding and developing young talent had apparently eroded by the time Carl started signing the checks. Look back on any of those drafts that happened while Lindner owned the team, while Bowden and his staff did the selecting and tell me what players have lit it up. O’Brien began the thankless task of rebuilding a system, without enough players at the major league level to compete. Ultimately, it cost him his job,

Baker spent the first couple of years watching his best talent go through growing pains. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto come to mind. Lately Drew Stubbs. That’s what happens when you inherit a team with dead wood and not enough big league talent.

I don’t know if Dusty Baker will get this team into the post season this year. Don’t know if he’ll ever be the kind of manager you want him to be. But I’m not running him out the door, right now. Last I checked, the Reds are in first place.

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Good Monday Morning!

Walt Jocketty is CIA all the way. Stealth. The only one who knows what he’s up to is him. Remember the trade last year for Scott Rolen? Didn’t see that one coming, did we? Aroldis Chapman? Fidel Castro didn’t see that one coming either. So today, as we sit here with your Cincinnati Reds a game and a half out of first place, who knows what the silver fox is up to? Let’s hope he’s up to something. Because, as constructed, this Reds team isn’t good enough to win their division. And worse, the Cardinals haven’t made their big move yet. And you know that’s coming.

Here’s what the Reds don’t have that they need to be considered serious contenders: they need power pitchers in their bullpen. They need a legitimate number one starting pitcher. Mike Leake? Nice story, but the guy has only got so many more miles on him. The way they’re doing the math at Great American Ball Park, he’ll be out of gas by early September, or just in time for what could be a showdown series with the Cardinals in St. Louis. Bronson Arroyo? Historically, he’s a .500 pitcher and there aren’t too may legit number one starting pitchers who’ve been called that. Aaron Harang careens from good to bad like mood swings. Johnny Cueto throws too many pitches and lasts too few innings. Homer Bailey’s return has no arrival date and Sam Lecure, a month ago, was the answer to the question “Who’s That?”

It’s not Jocketty’s fault. But it’s his problem. This franchise stopped developing starting pitching at Scott Scudder. Richie Gardner, Ty Howington, Dustin Mosely, Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner. The list of first round pitching selections by the Cincinnati Reds from 1999 through 2003 is astoundingly bad. Jim Bowden’s barren field has been left to Dan O’Brien, Wayne Krivsky and Walt Jocketty to sow.

But the man in the chair now has a decision to make. He knows he doesn’t have a pitcher that matches up with Chris Carpenter, or Roy Halladay, or Clayton Kershaw, or Ubaldo Jiminez. Jocketty can find one. He can go to the Mariners and ask about Cliff Lee, or the Royals and ask about Zach Greinke. But it will cost him, in prospects and money. Trading for now, could hurt the future.

Except, there is no future in baseball. Baseball, like every other professional sport is day to day. We hear that 2011 will be the year the Reds will blossom with their prospects ready to help the big league club. But seasons don’t translate. Teams don’t get to pick up where they left off, one season to the next. What guarantees are there for 2011? Will Scott Rolen stay healthy, and as effective as he’s been this season? Will Jonny Gomes hit in 2011 like he’s hitting now? Can anyone say for certain that arm injuries won’t infest the Reds key pitchers?

The 1999 Cincinnati Reds were similar, in a lot of ways to this current club. Bowden went out and traded for Juan Guzman. He went 6-3 and got the Reds to within a whisker of the playoffs. But the Reds paid a price. They gave up BJ Ryan to Baltimore, who turned out to be a very good closer.

In 2006, Wayne Krivsky traded two everyday players to get, at the time, the two best bullpen pitchers available. It turned out to be a lose-lose for both the Reds and Nationals. Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez were busts in DC. Gary Majewski arrived here hurt. Bill Bray has been nothing but a rumor since the deal.

Now, like Bowden and Krivsky before him, Jocketty must make a calculated decision. He needs to decide if his team is a player or two away from making the playoffs. And then he needs to do something about it, without being completely beholden to the future.

The playoffs don’t come our way very often. That’s why Bowden and Krivsky did what they did. It didn’t work out either time. But you’ve got to try. And you have to start trying now. Play it smart,. But play it quickly.

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Welcome to Wednesday....

Watching the Reds beat the Cardinals last night was watching two heavyweight boxers go the distance. Each side took some heavy punches and each side delivered damage. It was one of those in season classics you get during the course of a 162 season. We haven't had a lot of those around here lately, because the Reds haven't played a lot of games lately that've mattered. Now that they're good again, I think we'll see a few more.

I raised this question this past Sunday on my radio show. I asked my audience on 700 WLW what the Reds should be thinking about, right now, about how to make this team better. I was amazed to hear some callers, emailers and even the great Hal McCoy, Hall Of Fame writer, suggest that the team should stand pat. Now understand, I couched everything I said by saying that no trades or roster adjustments should be made this early in the season. You simply don't trade, or get maximum value on return, until you approach the trade deadline of July 31st. But you have to at least be thinking about what you're going to need to help you get to the playoffs.
You do that for two reasons. One, your competition will be looking at ways to get better and two, you have to know your weaknesses and explore improving them or they'll haunt you for the rest of the pennant run.

Look at any contending team, in any season, and see what it does to get better during the course of a season. Last year, the Yankees won it all. But it didn't stop them from making deadline deals, including one that sent Jerry Hairston, Jr. to New York. In 2006, the Reds got a whiff of what a pennant race is like. The sent Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns to the Nationals in return for relief pitchers Gary Majewski and Bill Bray. That's a deal that worked out for neither side. But the Reds recognized a weakness and tried to address it.

McCoy had the best rationale for not trying to make a deal. His thought was waiting on current relievers Nick Massett and Daniel Ray Herrera and see if they can pitch their way out of their problems. McCoy, like a lot of us, senses a good chemistry inside the Reds clubhouse and worries that bringing in an 'outsider' through trade may mess-up the chemistry. That's a real possibility. And, there's always the possibility that the answers to the Reds bullpen problems may like in "AAA". Matt Maloney, Jared Burton and maybe even Aroldis Chapman, the $30 million dollar phenom, could contribute out of the Reds bullpen. As early as August, Edinson Volquez could return from his elbow sugery and rehabilitation. He'd be a candidate for the pen, at least in the short term.

But not thinking about your weaknesses and how you would address them come trade deadline is simply irresponsible. My guess is, a veteran general manager like Walt Jocketty has spent a lot of time working this. The hope is, he'll have to.

You can always follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/kenbroo

Quick hits....looking forward to tonight's NHL Stanley Cup game #3. I think the Flyers will feed off the emotion of the home crowd and make this a 2-1 series. By the way, if you have Home Box Office and haven't seen the documentary on the 1970's Broad Street Bullies, you're missing something. I hated those Flyer teams. But they were good, and tough.......

The NBA finals begin Thursday. I love the story the Boston Celtics have been writing. But I think it won't have a happy ending. Lakers in six.......

Tiger won't win the Memorial this weekend. And I don't think he'll ever approach the dominance in golf he once had. He'll win tournaments. He'll win major tournaments. But given his knee problems and his off course behavior, never again.....

I miss Graeter's ice cream, one of things I've had to cut out after my heart attack. But sorbet and sherbert aren't bad at all.....

Glad to see my good pal Andy Furman getting some fill in work wih Fox Sports Radio. I've known Andy for over 30 years, back in the days when he was Sports Information Director for Oral Roberts Univeristy and I was the Sports Director for KOTV in Tulsa. He's one of a kind (which is a good thing) and a very decent person at the core (which is an even better thing).....

I've had emails from dancers and dance instructors who've told me that the training that Chad Ochocinco had for his stint on Dancing With The Stars will make him a better football player. They claim he's had to exercise and use muscles that are different from the ones he uses to catch passes and run on a football field. I'm no muscle expert, so I'll defer to them. But I wonder if Marvin Lewis is buying into that theory. Seems to me, when you play for a team that's been a classic under-achiever and you're the face of that team, you really need to be with that team helping it get better, not off ballroom dancing......

But I'll give Ochocinco this: he's the smartest athlete to come through Cincinnati in a long, long time. He's setting himself up for life after football. And if you believe what Jack Bechta a player agent, my recent guest on Sunday Morning Sportstalk on 700 WLW, told me 75% of all NFL players are broke three to five years after leaving the game. Chad looks like he 'gets' that. So in that case, good for him.....

See you tonight at 6p and 11p on Cincinnati's Channel 5 WLWT. And be sure to check out my web site www.kenbroo.com

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It's Tuesday, already....

If you're a Reds fan, you're walking the tightrope today. On one side is what appears to be more of the same, more of what we've seen from this team the past ten or so years. That would be poor fundamentals, starting pitching that can't get past the 5th inning and a team that's simply inadequate in the art of situational hitting. On the other side is the fact that the Reds are just 13 games into the season and only 3 1/2 games out of first place. It's a delicate balance between cynicism and hope. What side do you come down on?

I'm always a 'glass half full' kinda guy. So the side I choose is the latter. I know we've seen far too much of the same, through 13 games this season. I wonder how, despite managerial changes and coaching changes, the Reds simply can't develope decent prospects into serviceable or better Major League players. It's astounding, really. Austin Kearns was a complete bust. Adam Dunn went from being a power hitter, who also hit for average, to a power hitter who had trouble cracking the .275 ceiling. The latter day incarnates are Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs. Bruce is baffled continuously by the breaking ball. Stubbs swings like a rusty gate.

Hitting coaches come and go, from Jim Lefebvre to Chris Chambliss to Brook Jacoby and little changes. By the way, just an aside: whose Wheaties did Dave Parker spit in? One of the most prolific and feared hitters in MLB history lives within five miles of Great American Ball Park. Why is it that the Reds won't give him a whiff of a job interview? Is it because he was caught up in the infamous Pittsburgh Pirates drug bust? How many years ago was that? All I know is this: Parker could hit better than any hitting coach the Reds have had in my memory.

Starting pitching has been a cronic problem for the Reds. Under Jim Bowden, the Reds couldn't find, draft or kidnap a decent starting pitcher, even if they had a map, compass and a picture of Cy Young. Do you remember Ty Howington, or Richie Gardner or Ryan Wagner? All first round picks who turned out to be busts. Or how about the second round pick the year the Reds drafted Wagner: Thomas Pauley. Where is that dude now? The current starting five they employ now have 13 starts so far in 2010 and none has been credited with any of the Reds five wins. That's an astounding fact. Worse, few of them have managed to take a game into the seventh inning. Johnny Cueto pitches like he's been told there's a prize for throwing the most pitches in one ballgame. By the fourth inning, consistently in his short Major League career, Cueto is approaching 80 pitches. Worse, Homer Bailey and Aaron Harang have fallen into that trap as well. That means Dusty Baker is going to his bullpen virtually every game in the 5th and 6th inning. That will kill a team quicker than any batting slump.

So I'm not ready to give up on 2010 just yet. But the day for bailing on the Reds is quickly approaching. Wait 'til next year keeps coming sooner and sooner it seems at Great American Ball Park.

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Random thoughts from Opening Day....

Why in the world would Dusty Baker go through an entire spring training, have Drew Stubbs win the starting job in centerfield and then sit him in the opener? He's either your starter, or he isn't. He is a former first round draft pick. If you're protecting a player (from Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter) then you really don't have a starting player. By the way, when Stubbs got into the game, he had two hits, both off a right handed pitcher.

Laynce Nix and Chris Dickerson are and should be, the fourth and fifth outfielders on this team. And they start while Stubbs and Jonny Gomes sit? This is what will get Baker in hot water with the fans and his team's owner quicker than anything. He pulled the same stunt last season by sending Gomes to the minors to begin the season and starting Darnell McDonald in left field.

I don't know if Aaron Harang can be an effective every fifth day starter anymore. I hope he can, but I really don't know. But I do know this: when the count is 2-2 with two on and two out, you attack the hitter and end the inning. Instead, Harang, either on his own or from dugout instruction, tried to pick a runner off first, threw wildly and allowed the runner at third to score. Bad baseball.

Is Mike Lincoln on this team simply because he had guaranteed money? Yes. But if it were a choice of 'eating' Aaron Miles' $2.7 million or Lincoln's $3.1 million, I would have given Miles the chance to hit his way onto the team, rather than paying Lincoln. Besides, why was Lincoln the first choice coming out of the bullpen? And could Logan Ondrusek only pitch one inning Monday? He pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning. Instead of letting him pitch in the 9th, when it was still a two run game, Baker opted for Nick Massett. He promptly gave up five runs. Another strange piece of strategy...

The new ballpark sushi is over priced at $12. I don't care how good it is......

There was no way the Reds were going to allow Aroldis Chapman to begin the season with the major league club. His contract is structured so that if he become a "Super Two" player (arbitration eligible after two seasons, which he would have become almost assuredly by starting this year with the Reds), the money due him would accelerate ahead of the five years it's due. But by starting him in the minors for at least the first couple of months, the Reds miss out on his gate appeal. Think about it: Wednesday night is game #2 of this series. If history tells us anything, it's that the second game of most Reds seasons is played before friends and loved ones. With Chapman pitching, this next game had an excellent chance of being a sell out. But that won't happen this year....

And how do you let the Cardinals best player, Albert Puljos, beat you? It's not like he's an unknown commodity...

I don’t know if the Reds are goinig to be any better this season that last. They don’t, and you don’t either. Because at this time of the year, everybody believes they’ve got what it takes to win it all. I’ve been at spring training camps with the Reds, when their best pitchers were Jimmy Haynes and Joey Hamilton, and they truly believed they had the stuff to contend. I didn’t want to burst their bubble at the time, but even the team bus driver knew, they had no shot.

But after spending about five days out here in the desert, here’s what my eyes are tellilng me.

For starters, this team has never had more raw talent, more potential than it has right now, certainly not in the last ten seasons. The every day eight, the rotation and the bullpen is deeper than it’s ever been. Now, you and I both know that potential is sometimes left at the gate when the pennant races begin. No body has won a pennant ‘on paper’.

I did a side by side comparison between the Reds and the Cardinals a few Sundays ago. I thought it was a 50-50 split. On some levels, at some positions, the Cardindals were ahead of the Reds. On other levels, the Reds stacked up better. At this time of the season, it doesn’t matter. Who knows what injuries, slumps and sore arms await a team at this time of the year.
But here’s what I do know. The Reds lost their ‘ace’, Edison Volquez last season. But the starting rotation this year is the best it’s been maybe in 15 years. Maybe it’s a little bit of wishful thinking here. But I believe that Aaron Harang reverts back to his pre-2008 form this season. He’s as slim as he was last season. And Harang has also spent a lot of time in the off season working the weights.

Bronson Arroyo eats innings. Johnny Cueto doesn’t. And who knows which Homer Bailey shows up this year. The good Homer Bailey ended last season, looking very much like the prized draft pick from 2004.
The bullpan is over priced at the back end. Francisco Cordero is tying up $14 million dollars in payroll. But his 39 saves with a below average baseball team last season was more than impressive. If the starters can eat up enough innings, Cordero will easily hit 39 again in 2010.
Go up and down the everyday eight. Is there a better defensive infield in the National League than your Cincinnati Reds? Scott Rolen is the best defensive third baseball this team has had since Aaron Boone. Orlando Cabrera and Brandon Phillips have had gold in their gloves. And in a division with top to bottom maqui first baseball, Joey Votto more than holds his own. Behind the plate, Ramon Hernandez is easily the best catcher this team has had since Benito Santiago and Eddie Taubensee.
The big stat in baseball now is ‘run prevention’. That’s baseball-eese for good defense. In the Reds infield, ‘run prevention’ should never be easier to achieve than it will be in 2010.

In the outfield, there are five guys who can legitimately say they have a right to start. Only three can, of course. But Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce and Laynce Nix all have a legit reason to lay claim to a starting job. Look it up: Nix and Dickerson and Gomes in left field last season dropped some solid numbers. Bruce was much better at the plate after coming back from his broken wrist than he was before he broke it. Drew Stubbs hit for power after being called up from Triple A. Stubbs and the word power used to be mutually exclusive.
Here’s something else: everybody in the outfield can fly. The team speed in the outfield is exhilirating. Centerfielders, by and large, aren’t usually lead off hitters. But because of his speed, Stubbs can fill that spot. Dickerson can too, if need by. Team speed is a real strength.
But no team, in professional sports, operates in a vacuum. The Reds certainly don’t. They have the Cardinals, Cubs and Astros to contend with. The Brewers were a contender late into last season. They play in the only six team division in baseball. The fact is, all of those teams have gotten better in the off season too.

What I’ve seen since I arrived out here on Tuesday has led me to believe this team can be a lot better in 2010 than 2009. I’m rooting for that. Not for the Reds, mind you. My job doesn’t afford me that luxury. In journalism, broadcast or print, you have to check your rooting interests at the door. But I’m rooting for the Reds to be better in 2010 than any other year in the last 15 because, we really need it. Maybe you remember the good old days. Maybe you don’t. If you’re not 26 or 27 years old, you don’t remember the last time the Reds won a World Series. That’s a major problem for this team. It’s marketing to a lost generation. Too many potential fans have grown up since 1990 and have taken their rooting interests to other teams; or worse forgotten about the game of baseball all together.

This lost generation doesn’t go to games, like their father and grandfathers (or grandmothers for that matter) once did. They now have families and their children aren’t being raised Reds fans, like a lot of us were. The lost generation doesn’t spend money on the Reds, doesn’t spend money on the businesses in downtown that rely on them. The economy suffers because the team hasn’t been good. And we all suffer because of that. Good business in and around Great American Ball Park suffer, or fold and we suffer along with them. Having a competitive baseball team, a team that plays like it has a chance to win, creates buzz and buzz creates dollars and dollars fuel an economy.

Downtown Cincinnati is struggling. The Chamber of Commerce and the downtown PR flaks will try to tell you otherwise. But go ask anyone who runs a business downtown how things are going. The prevailing answer is ‘not good’. A good baseball team can change that. It can bring fans to downtown, who might just decide to drop a few more bucks in the businesses outside the ball park. Having a winning team is nice. Having a winning team that generates income for surrounding businesses is nicer.
That’s why I’m rooting for the Reds to be a better team this year. When they win, Cincinnati wins. And Cincinnati, like a lot of cities around the country, are having a tough time winning these days.I think it’s going to be better in 2010. I’m always a glass half full kind of guy. But honestly, I don’t know. I just hope. And that’s what this time of the year is all about

Good Monday Morning!

The bus industry got a boost this week from your Cincinnati Reds. Three busloads of Reds players, front office folks and Dusty Baker fanned out over three states, spreading the word…optimistic of course at ever stop….to the small towns and ‘burghs that at one time were chock full of Reds fans. There are still plenty of Reds fans in southern Kentucky, Northwestern Indiana and the hills of West Virginia. But not so much anymore. Oh, there are plenty of fans who’ll listen to the games here on the Big One and follow the team in the hometown papers. But buy a ticket? Drive to Cincinnati? Spend the weekend at a local hotel and support the local eating and drinking establishments? You’ll get the answer on that from the restauranteurs and hoteliers in the Tri-State. Or just check out the license plates in the parking lots around Great American Ball Park on game day. You’ll see a lot of Ohio and Kentucky plates, a few Indiana plates. But not like it was even ten years ago.

We used to be able to park our news cars close to the players entrance at Riverfront Stadium. Walking out after covering a game, it was fun to see the cars from distant locations. You’d see Kentucky plates with dealership ads from Frankfort, Owensboro, Pikeville and Paducah. You’d see plates from Illinois, Tennessee and even Arkansas. Saw more than a few of those.
But lately, the Reds have become less of a regional draw and more of a local team. That doesn’t matter really to you and me. But it matters a lot to the guy who writes the checks. And that’s why Bob Castellini is going Greyhound this weekend.

The Reds Caravan was a big deal, back in the day. Anytime you had Pete Rose or Eric Davis or whomever the stars of the moment were rolling into Chillicothe, or Charleston, or Cambridge, it was big news. But then the team got bad, Marge got cheap and the the economy went south. Not too surprisingly, the Reds stopped be an attraction for a lot of people outside of Cincinnati.

But that’s changed now. The buses are rolling and the Reds are on the verge of being relevant in a lot of homes again. If you haven’t heard, a lot of the baseball experts are hopping on the Reds bandwagon. The latest diamond mind projections are out today. I won’t bore you with the statistical detail of the study. It factors in a lot of things, to come up with projected wins, projected wins vs actual wins in 2009. It’s the stuff that makes your eyeballs roll up into your forhead. Anyway, the latest projection has the Reds winning 86 games this season. That’d be an increase of eight wins over last year and would put them smack dab in the middle of the playoff chase..

PECOTA is another statistical study that would bore anyone who can’t spell sabermetrics. It’s big if you’re addicted to fantasy baseball Anyhow, the 2010 numbers are out for that and it has the Reds finishing second to the Cardinals in the NL Central, with an 81-81 record.

I think what I’m getting at here is that I think the Reds are going to be a lot better than some of us think they will this season. I’m not drinking the Kool Aid. I’m just looking at facts.

Joey Votto is now one of the top hitters in the league. If he’s around for the full season, he could deliver monster numbers. Remember, the Reds were very much in the race until Votto left for a month in late May. Brandon Phillips is just a year removed from a Gold Glove season. Drew Stubbs has blistering speed and showed flashes of power at the major league level last season. Ramon Hernandez is back to handle the pitching. He offers offense that the Reds haven’t had behind the plate in a long time.

The rotation isn’t bad. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are the young guns. I’m willing to bet that Aaron Harang is back to his 2007 form. Bronson Arroyo will be his typical ‘500’ self. And the bullpen still has a legit closer in Francisco Cordero, with Jared Burton Nick Massett and Micah Owings providing set up and middle relief.

Jay Bruce is a large question. He hit well for the first two weeks of his major league career. After that, not so hot. There is no answer for left field and there’s no way the Reds are serious contenders with a short stop who hits ‘211’. The good news: Orlando Cabrera may be here by later today.

Look, the Cardinals signed Matt Holiday this winter. They still have Chris Carpenter and the best player in the game, Prince Albert. The Cubs just signed Xavier Nady and the Astros added pitcher Brett Myers among others.

But I get the feeling we’re going to be saying good bye to these 76-78 win seasons. 2011 looks like it could be a huge year, when Chris Heisey Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso and Aroldis Chapman join the core talent that will play at Great American Ball Park this season.

It’s a good time for the Reds to spread the word. Maybe they’ll become relevant again, to a lot more people, besides you and me.

Big shows this Sunday, both on 700 WLW and WLWT Channel 5.

Sunday morning on 700 WLW, my guests included national best selling writer, John Feinstein. We'll discuss the BCS, in light of an article John just wrote for the Washington Post. Jarrett Bell from USA Today will join me, as well to discuss the Bengals vs Ravnes game and other things around the NFL. And from the nationalfootballpost.com, Aaron Wilson will check. Among Aaron's many jobs is covering the Ravens. We're on from 9am-11:30am. If you don't live in the Midwest, you can always listen on-line, at www.700wlw.com.

Sunday night on WLWT, or there abouts depending on how long Sunday Night Football runs, we'll be join by 700 WLW's Lance McAllister and former Cincinnati Bengal, Eric Thomas. Maybe a surprise of two along the way.

I've just posted my latest Broo View Podcast to the front page of my web site, www.kenbroo.com. My guest in this current episode is the national college football writer, Jay Christensen. He's got some interesting thoughts on the BCS and the UC Bearcats.

The latest Bengals Report Podcast is also on www.kenbroo.com. Bengalsinsder.com's Marc Hardin and I break down the first seven games of this season.

Some random thoughts on this random Friday...

I think Ohio State loses at Penn State this Saturday, but comes back to hand Iowa its first loss of the season a week from now.....

The official line on the UC-Connecticut game is UC minus 17. That's about right. I don't care how many close games UConn has played this season. They haven't seen any offense like the one UC will toss at them Saturday night...

Florida coach, Urban Meyer should know better. His top defensive player is caught on tape trying to gouge the eyes out of an opponent and Meyer only suspends the kid for one half of one game. That's a great message to the rest of your team, and the sporting world, where your priorities are. I don't know if it was Brandon Spikes idea to suspend himself for a full game, but it's a good idea. Maybe it was a way for Meyer to save face. But somebody that Meyer answers to need to sit him down and have a long talk about priorities....

There are a lot of bad teams this season in the NFL. I can't remember a year when we've had this many bad teams. Browns, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Bills, Jags, Chiefs, Raiders. Which team is the worst? It's tough to pick against the Browns, a team that's both bad AND dysfunction. But that Tampa team is plain awful....

The 2009 World Series drew great TV ratings and it was fun to watch. But by the seventh inning of game six, I began to get depressed. The Reds will never, under current structure, be as good as either the Yankees or Phils. If the threshold of competing is the $100 million per year payroll, small market teams like the Reds are doomed. You can build your farm system and win with your own players. But eventually, those players, if they're good, will cost too much to keep. So they're dealt, or allowed to walk, to the big market teams furthering the disparity.

You can always follow the blueprint of the Twins and Rays. But you'll only capture 'lightning in a bottle' every so often. The Twins have been to the playoffs five times in this decade, a very successful number. But they haven't won a World Series in 19 years.

I heard Buster Olney, an ESPN "insider" say this week that the situation for small market teams will get even worse in 37 days, when arbitration eligble players must be tendered offers. Olney predicts, rather than offering arbitration, a lot of small market teams will simply let their players walk.

Best new show on television is "Flash Forward". It's shot well, good character development and a story line that's both creative and frightening. And it's written very well. Good writing trumps everything else in the world of entertainment.

And I'm done writing for now. Have a great weekend!

Happy Tuesday!

Did you see Willy Tavares in action last night? Did you see the ineptitude that has turned this town against him, and is slowly turning the town against the man who traded for him, Walt Jocketty?

Inside of one half inning, Tavares ran into the wall in centerfield twice, TWICE, without making the catch. The first time was somewhat forgivable: Tavares was trying to track down a long fly ball. But the second time, two batters after the first run in, Tavares went back on a fly ball, ran into the wall with his back to the field and the ball bounced IN FRONT of him.

And this is what the Reds paid close to $7 million dollars for?

Look you can can on one hand this is Bob Castellini's money and he should take issue with Jocketty who signed Tavares for $7 mil when Tavares could have been had for close to the MLB minimum. And Castellini should. But the reason why this is so important to you is that Castellini's payroll this year is $75 million and will be close to that next year. And he's in no position to be throwing good money after bad.

Tavares came here with a reputation of stealing bases and making plays in the field that highlight his speed. We've seen far to little of either. The Reds are in no position to eat his contract. But they are in a position to bench Tavares and let others have a shot at his job. When Chris Dickerson is healthy, he should start every day in left field. Dickerson should have been the starting centerfielder all along. When September rolls around, both Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey should be brought up from AAA and allowed to get a taste of major league baseball.

And sometime soon, Castellini should call Jocketty into his office as ask Walt exactly where is the guy who was GM in St. Louis and very successful at that. Maybe between the two of them, they can find that guy before another season is flushed because of ill advised player acquisitions.

Just posted to my web site www.kenbroo.com is the latest Broo View Podcast. My guest is MLB umpire, Joe West, who just called his 4,000th career game. Joe and I visit about that and what it takes to get a manager or player thrown out of a game. Joe also talks about his singing career. If you're on the fly, you can also download it here.

Just back from a quick trip to the East Coast. Did New York, theatre, couple of restaurants and the obligatory diner trips. And I also caught a ballgame, the Mets against the Cardinals at Citi Field. Great new ballpark, resurrecting the style and thankfully not the smell of the old Ebbets Field. I’m not old enough to remember the Brooklyn Dodgers, but apparently Brooklyn and Ebbets Field had a smell all their own.

Anyhow, I watched the Mets smoke the Cardinals 11-0 on Wednesday night and then get trounced themselves by the Yankees on Friday night. And out there, the fans are just like you and me. Well, OK, perhaps we don’t use four letter words as verbs as much as they do. But in the sense that fans want their teams to win and want action if they don’t, we’ve got some common ground with New Yorkers.

The Mets are banged up. They want their general manager to make a deal, today, last Thursday if possible, to get another big bat in their line up. The Yankees have some pitching problems, they want another arm for the rotation, couple for the bullpen and if their GM can find someone to replace outfielder Xavier Nady, great, go get him.

Like you and me, maybe, fans out there believe there are teams and GM’s all over baseball just waiting to be fleeced. They get a star player or two for a couple of broken down veterans and minor leaguers that are more like suspects instead of prospects.

You know, like Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Lincoln in exchange for Kevin Youkilis.

So I’m sitting at this game and the guy next to me strikes up a conversation. Wants to know where I’m from. I guess I didn’t look or act like a ntative, even though I spent 17-years of my life, a long time ago, living in that area of the country. Guy says, ‘Cincinnati?’ I said ‘yeah’. And after we got by the initial jokes of Bengals arrests and Pete Rose’s gambling, he wants to know if Aaron Harang was available. Because he’d heard on a sports talk radio show out there that the Reds would be willing to deal Harang to the Mets in exchange for somebody named Argemis Reyes and a left handed pitcher in Double-A who had just blown out his elbow. You think sports talk radio is anything around here? Out there think Lance McAllister on steroids, 24-7, 365.

So anyway, I tell this guy Sal, from Bensonhurst, I said I didn’t think Harang’s available,,but after checking Harang’s pitching line the next night, I began to think it wasn’t such a bad idea.

But the truth is nobody is trading anyone right now. And yeah, every fans wants action, deals, call ups, try outs, imports from Japan. But it won’t happen, not yet anyway. Look at the standings today. 14 teams are within 6 games of the lead, or closer. Even more can still think of themselves as wild card contenders. The Reds are at ‘500’ and only 2.5 games back, and right in the thick of things in the National League Wild Card Race.

Deal now and get what, from whom? This is the time of the year when baseball resembles a contract negotiation. Neither side wants to make the first move. How much do you want? What are you offering? Who’s on first? I got it, you take it. That’s why mid season deals are done as close to the trading deadline as possible. Teams that need will offer more, teams that are out of it will take less than what they will now, a little more than a month away from deadline day.

What you get now is Norris Hopper for Corky Miller, not even a seismic blip in Louisville.

Barring a total implosion, the Reds are going to be in this race at least until the trade deadline. So you have to figure a trade for an upgrade will be coming. But the question is, at what price? Bailey? Stubbs? Arroyo? Pick a name. But make sure it’s a good one. That’s the only way you’ll get someone coming here, who’ll be good enough to help.

Every so often, the Reds have night like last night. They put up five or more runs and you think everything is going to be OK. But it’s not. They pay the price, far too often, of not addressing their glaring offensive needs in this past off season. They pay the price for letting their farm system go into atrophy in the mid-90’s to 2003. And now, if they really want to win this season, they’ll pay the price. It’s the cost of doing business.

Good Monday Morning!

Bob Castellini is taking some public hits. Fans are upset with the way his ballclub is put together. Some of us would rather have had a ten million dollar ballplayer in left field, rather than a ten million dollar scoreboard, particularly one where there aren’t enough replays and the graphics appear to have been done on an Apple 3 computer.

But give the produce King this, he knows Cincinnati, and he appreciates the history that is Cincinnati Reds baseball. That’s the thing about baseball, it’s all about history. We revel in the stats, the stories, the players. Football offers us the national pastime, anymore. Basketball allows us to see the superstars closer and in more detail than any other sport. But baseball is the total story, weaved together by stats, by stories and by its history. You probably couldn’t name the starting defensive tackles on the 1992 Cincinnati Bengals. Hell, as bad as that team was, why would you want to/ But I’ll bet you know that the 1992 Reds finished 18 games above ‘500’, and that their starting outfield was Bip Roberts in left, Dave Martinez in center and Paul O’Neill in right.

For the record, the starting defensive ends on the 1992 Bengals were Lamar Rogers and Alonzo Mitts.

This week, the produce King welcomed the baseball world to Cincinnati for the Civil Rights Game. By all accounts the weekend was a slam dunk hit. The fly by media actually stopped in Cincinnati for once. Some big names in sports spent the weekend here and we got some good national pub.

But here’s what I saw that I liked. I saw Frank Robinson, embraced by Cincinnati again and willing to be so. As late as five years ago the chances of that happening were about as good as you landing on Mars. Robinson was run out of here in 1966, called an old 30 and in return from the Orioles, the Reds got a box of jock straps and Milt Pappas. We know what Robinson did when he got to Baltimore. We also know that he never forgave Cincinnati, or the misguided bunch that traded him away.

Robinson went onto make a little history himself, becoming baseball’s first black manager, and winning another MVP award wearing an Orioles uniform. He moved on to other jobs in baseball and we moved onto the Big Red Machine, other heroes, other stories. He didn’t like us all that much and we simply forgot about him. Except when Castellini picked up the phone a few months ago and reached out to him. Told Robinson it was a new day here, that he, Castellini was a Cincinnati born and bred guy and that, like a lot us, went to Crosley Field and watch Robinson do his magic act that baffled opposing pitchers.

In the roundtable discussion Friday at the Freedom Center, and last night on the radio and TV, you’d have thought Frank Robinson was Cincinnati’s official ambassador to the game of baseball. Good lesson from the produce King: extend an olive branch and you may wind up with a vineyard.

The other thing I saw this week that I liked a lot was Eric Davis, in uniform and working with the current Reds. To those of us who need a refresher court, Eric Davis went over the wall to rob the opposing batters of home runs, had remarkable speed in the field and on the bases, led the Reds to a wire-to-wire World Series win in 1990, lacerated a kidney in the process, hired his own private plane to fly back from Oakland when his doctors told him he should not fly commercial, and we won’t even get into what Marge Schott was overheard calling him.

Oh, and he beat cancer along the way, playing in major league baseball games the same day he took chemotherapy. Try that sometime and see how you do.

He also infuriated a lot of us because we thought he held his hands too low at the plate and seemed to come up with muscle ailments far too often.

But he was good, damn good and the wire to wire thing ought to be a ‘get out of jail free’ card with all of us.

But like Robinson, Davis was estranged from this Reds organization too. Too often, he’d come into town to see his friends and we’d wonder why the Reds couldn’t find a place for him, anywhere, somewhere.

Castellini found a place. Special assistant to the president, is Davis’ title. The title is insignificant. The real story is a reconnection with history. The Produce King figured it out. Under Marge Schott, under Carl Lindner, the Reds really never had any interest in it.

In a 300 television channel universe, in a DINS world….and you know what D-I-N-S means….in a climate where even if we have a job, we worry constantly if we’ll keep it, the appreciation, let alone the knowledge of it is a luxury to a lot of us. But to the business, and the sport, of baseball. In a lot of ways, history is baseball’s life blood. It was good to see Hank Aaron here this weekend. We reveled in the athletic royalty of Muhammad Ali. But the bigger story for us, we who call the Tri-State home, was two of our own back with the family. It was a good week.

Random thoughts from a random mind for a random kind of Friday...

If Willy Tavares is 1-for his last 45-at bats, why does Reds manager Dusty Baker keep putting him in the line-up? Is it because Reds owner, Bob Castellini is paying Tavares $6.8 million for two seasons and GM Walt Jocketty is the guy who found Tavares? Is Willy Tavares no more than a 2009 version of 2008 over-paid bust, Corey Patterson?

I've been consistent on this: the Reds should have put offensively challenged but defensively solid Chris Dickerson, making the major league minimum, in centerfield this season and taken the $6.8 million they spent on Tavares and signed a legit big time player, for one season, to play left field. Bobby Abreu anyone? Swing the deal for Jermain Dye, mayhaps? You only needed a stopgap in the outfield, because in 2010 either Drew Stubbs will be in left field or Yonder Alonso will be on first base, with Joey Votto in left. It's beyond disappointing, the number of games the Reds would have won this season, had they just had a timely base hit. They're hitting .213 with runners in scoring position...

There is no future in baseball anymore. 2010 for your Cincinnati Reds? What if a series of injuries keep them from being competitive? They have the pitching now to compete. But the front office failed their fans and a majority of that big league roster by not adding another big time bat. By the way, exactly which Cincinnati Red right now strikes fear in the heart of an imposing pitcher?

Ochocinco isn't moving in with Carson Palmer. Mrs. Palmer, mother of Carson's newborn twins, shot down the idea. Palmer said Thursday he doesn't need another kid (85) running around the house, either.....

The Bengals will be better in 2009. But they won't be playoff better. Ochocinco guaranteed the team will make the playoffs. But honestly, do you see eleven wins on their schedule? And it will take eleven to get into the playoffs. Things may be different come September. But with the Ravens and Steelers in the Bengals division, with the Titans, Texans, Jags, Dolphins and Bills as legit candidates for the the two wild cards, exactly how does Cincinnati get into the playoffs?

2010, with Rey Maualuga and Andre Smith with a year under their belts? Different story.

Shaq is going to make LeBron better? Really?

One of my guests this Sunday on 700 WLW (9am-Noon ET) will be college football guhru Phil Steele. His pre-season magazine is a 'must get' for any real fan. He'll join me at 10:05 am.

Geoff Hobson from bengals.com, former Bengal Eric Thomas and WEBN's Wildman Walker join George Vogel and me on Sports Rock this Sunday night 11:35pm on WLWT in Cincinnati.

I read where Seleena Roberts' book on Alex Rodriguez has sold a grand total of 16,000 copies. Can you say 'Bargain Rack at Barnes & Noble" by September? I get the feeling no one who actually reads books (an increasingly aging demo) cares about steroids and human growth hormones.

Watching the Pittsburgh Penguins parade around that city's downtown with the Stanley Cup makes me wonder if a scene like that might've been possible in Cincinnati. In 1979, when the NHL 'expanded' (it refused to call it a merger) the WHA's Cincinnati Stingers were offered an option: pony up a franchise fee and join the NHL or take a cash buyout and fold. The Stingers money guys, which included current Reds' owner Bob Castellini, took the money and ran.

I think the NHL would have been big in Cincinnati. We'll never know.

Whatever happened to original Stingers Dennis Sobchuck, or Dale Smedsmo?

If the Minnesota Vikings actually sign Brett Favre, they deserve him. I thought only wide receivers were allowed to be divas.

Anybody notice, that with 18 games to go BEFORE the halfway point of this 2009 baseball season, the Nationals Adam Dunn has 18 home runs and 46 rbi? He's averaged 40/100 over the last five seasons. And the Reds did absolutely nothing in the off season to replace the numbers Dunn took away with him.

Just askin'....

Not a great joke, but worth a smile: guy walks into a bar with a pile of asphalt on his shouler. He says to the bartender "Gimmee a beer, and give me one for the road"

Baboom-ching. Have a great weekend!

It's Thursday afternoon!

I celebrate that a lot, closer to the weekend, almost Friday.

We know this about your Cincinnati Reds: the can beat the teams that won't be around in October. Now, we need to see if they can beat the teams that will contend for a playoff berth. In the next ten days, the Reds play three in Milwaukee, four in St. Louis and then three against the Cubs in Cincinnati. This will tell us a lot about whether the Reds are 'con' tenders or 'pre' tenders.

My best guess is the Reds will hang around for awhile this season. I still think they need to pick up a good 'bat' (and a player along with it obviously) who can play left field on a daily basis. The platoon of Dickerson/Nix/Gomes has worked OK. But long term, none of these players has a resume to suggest they'll hold up under the pressure of a pennant chase.

If you look critically a the Reds roster, it's comprised basically of four good to decent starting pitchers (Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez), two bona-fide star players (Phillips & Votto. Sorry Jay Bruce, not there yet, but getting there) and a lot of role players. This 'team' aspect of the game has always played well in Cincinnati. We tend to love the team, hate the superstar around here. But for the rigors of a pennant race, it doesn't always hold up. Maybe this year is the exception. My best guess is, no. Walt Jocketty needs to be laying the ground work NOW to find what his team will need at the trading deadline, to push itself into contention late in the season.

If Edinson Volquez can pitch half as good the rest of this season as he pitched Wednesday night, he'll win 20 games and the Reds may turn out to be contenders. Volquez was more than terrific against the Astros, holding them to just one hit through eight innings. In fact, the first inning double by Houston's Miguel Tejada was almost a spectacular catch by Jay Bruce in right field. Had Bruce come up with that fly ball, Volquez may have pitching the ninth inning, looking for a no hitter. He told me, and a number of other reporters in the club house after the game that he was ready to let Francisco Cordero throw the ninth. But if he had a no hitter through eight, I would bet the ranch Volquez would have felt differently.

The Reds have finished April with an 11-10 record. That was a goal, finish the month with a winning record. And if they do that every month this season, they'll wind up with 88 wins. That, of course, is easier said than done. But if it happens, 88 wins would have Cincinnati in playoff contention.

We saw again this home stand how inconsistent a young team can be. Wednesday night, the youth of Adam Rosales was infectous. He not only drove in two of the Reds runs, he also helped the grounds crew cover the field with the tarp, when a pre game shower passed over Great American Ball Park. We saw the sheer desire and hustle of Lance Nix in this series. When he came up to the majors, Nix was labeled 'can't miss'. But that was beroe injuries derailed his career. Now, Nix has a second chance with the Reds and is back on track. But we also saw in this homestand that ended 2-4 for the Reds, just how far it needs to go to become a championship team. It again left too many runners on base. The team does not play well coming from behind, as evidenced by Bronson Arroyo's bad outing on Sunday. And it still does not have a pure clean up hitter. Maybe those things even out as the season progresses. But my thinking remains that the Reds will regret not signing a legitimate big league hitter for their left field postion. Should July roll around and this team remain in contention, it will be imperative that GM Walt Jocketty pursue that kind of player.

The great fear with this team shouldn't be that it will fall out of contention by mid summer and play to a house full of empty seats (although less than 10,000 showed up to watch them on Tuesday night). The great fear is missing the playoffs by a few games, and looking back on situations where a veteran left fielder might have help win some of those games.

But so far, OK.

Good Monday Morning!

Amazingly, the Reds won again Sunday. I say amazingly, because for the first two weeks of the season, the Reds offensive hasn't just been anemic, it's gone missing.

If you can’t score, you can’t win. Pick the sport, any sport. No team has ever won without a run, point, goal or birdie. Plain, simple, end of story.

The Reds can’t score, at least they can’t score when they need to score. We saw it again last night. We almost saw it Friday night. But Ramon Hernandez saved the night with his two run home run. Saturday night, the Reds got a grand total of two hits. They would have each had to have been grand slam homer for the the Reds to win. They lost, 7-0. Harang wasn’t sharp. The Astros got lucky with a couple of early “seeing eye” singles and Jared Burton was smacked around again.

Here’s the problem. And it’s been the problem ever since the Reds took a pass on adding a free agent bat this off season: the starting pitching has be lights out every game for this team to have a chance to win. OK, sure, we’ve seen games where the Reds have put six, eight runs up. But look at the run production through ten games. In six of those ten games, the Reds have put up three or fewer runs. And if it wasn’t for Joey Votto, it’d be a lot worse. Votto has driven in ten of the 38-runs the Reds have scored so far this season.

The bottom of the batting order is non existant. Gonzalez, Hernandez and the pitcher, all stuck below the Mendoza line. Gonzalez has exactly three hits in eight games. Jay Bruce has been to bat 34 times, he has six hits. Everybody I talk to says ‘he’ll come around’. Really? Have you seen the numbers Bruce has put up since his first two weeks in the majors? They’re pretty horrid. He’s hitting .226, just 19 home runs in just under 400 at bats and he’s whiffed over 100 times…once every four at bats, actually.

I told you last week, don’t make any hard evaluations until the season is six weeks old. By the sixth week, you’ll know exactly what this team is going to do the rest of this season. You’re smart, you follow the game. You’ll know.
But the first ten games have given us warning signs. Starting pitching has to be lights out every night for this team to have a chance at winning. Bullpen can’t afford too many Burton like performances. The base running and the defense have to be beyond good. Have we seen any of that so far this season?

As a guy I once worked for said, “There’s no calvary coming over the hill”. What you got is what you got. Maybe you platoon Janish at short with Gonzalez and hope you find offense there. Maybe Hanigan plays a little more until Hernandez hits his way out of it. Dickerson is hitting .263, Hairston .167. Do you keep running that tandem out there? Jonny Gomes is hitting .192 in Louisville.

Who didn’t see this coming?

Look, I like the $10 million scoreboard in left field. I would’ve loved a $10 million player in left field.

So here’s the question today: should the Reds now do what they didn’t do this winter, shop for a bat? Geoff Jenkins is sitting at home. It’ll cost the Reds about $400 grand to get him. Luis Gonzalez is sitting at home. Dollar figure on Gonzalez is about the same. Jim Edmonds is mowing his lawn today. What did he do to Walt Jocketty when they were both with the Cardinals? Shoe polish Walt’s car door handle?

My point is, it’s not too late and this division is not that great. If you’re proactive now, you might be able to save the strengths of this team, and save a season in the process. A baseball roster is a fluid thing, most seasons. Injuries, demotions trades and releases happen even on championship teams. They’re about ready for all of that in the land of the Yankees today.

Don’t make Harang and Arroyo sweat every pitch that they throw. Don’t yank Volquez and Cueto early, because you’re afraid leaving them in a game will result in a run or two you know you won’t be able to match. I hope some smart guy in Redsland is thinking about this, thinking that this season may only be a couple of weeks old but the warning signs are there. I hope somebody is sending a scout out to the batting cages or high school fields where an out of work major leaguer is staying in shape.

A lot of people got on Wayne Krivsky three years ago when he made that deal with the Nationals for relief pitching. It didn’t turn out so hot, but at least he tried. It was later in that season than it is now. But it’s later than you think.