THE BROO VIEW with Ken Broo

Good Monday Morning!

The bus industry got a boost this week from your Cincinnati Reds. Three busloads of Reds players, front office folks and Dusty Baker fanned out over three states, spreading the word…optimistic of course at ever stop….to the small towns and ‘burghs that at one time were chock full of Reds fans. There are still plenty of Reds fans in southern Kentucky, Northwestern Indiana and the hills of West Virginia. But not so much anymore. Oh, there are plenty of fans who’ll listen to the games here on the Big One and follow the team in the hometown papers. But buy a ticket? Drive to Cincinnati? Spend the weekend at a local hotel and support the local eating and drinking establishments? You’ll get the answer on that from the restauranteurs and hoteliers in the Tri-State. Or just check out the license plates in the parking lots around Great American Ball Park on game day. You’ll see a lot of Ohio and Kentucky plates, a few Indiana plates. But not like it was even ten years ago.

We used to be able to park our news cars close to the players entrance at Riverfront Stadium. Walking out after covering a game, it was fun to see the cars from distant locations. You’d see Kentucky plates with dealership ads from Frankfort, Owensboro, Pikeville and Paducah. You’d see plates from Illinois, Tennessee and even Arkansas. Saw more than a few of those.
But lately, the Reds have become less of a regional draw and more of a local team. That doesn’t matter really to you and me. But it matters a lot to the guy who writes the checks. And that’s why Bob Castellini is going Greyhound this weekend.

The Reds Caravan was a big deal, back in the day. Anytime you had Pete Rose or Eric Davis or whomever the stars of the moment were rolling into Chillicothe, or Charleston, or Cambridge, it was big news. But then the team got bad, Marge got cheap and the the economy went south. Not too surprisingly, the Reds stopped be an attraction for a lot of people outside of Cincinnati.

But that’s changed now. The buses are rolling and the Reds are on the verge of being relevant in a lot of homes again. If you haven’t heard, a lot of the baseball experts are hopping on the Reds bandwagon. The latest diamond mind projections are out today. I won’t bore you with the statistical detail of the study. It factors in a lot of things, to come up with projected wins, projected wins vs actual wins in 2009. It’s the stuff that makes your eyeballs roll up into your forhead. Anyway, the latest projection has the Reds winning 86 games this season. That’d be an increase of eight wins over last year and would put them smack dab in the middle of the playoff chase..

PECOTA is another statistical study that would bore anyone who can’t spell sabermetrics. It’s big if you’re addicted to fantasy baseball Anyhow, the 2010 numbers are out for that and it has the Reds finishing second to the Cardinals in the NL Central, with an 81-81 record.

I think what I’m getting at here is that I think the Reds are going to be a lot better than some of us think they will this season. I’m not drinking the Kool Aid. I’m just looking at facts.

Joey Votto is now one of the top hitters in the league. If he’s around for the full season, he could deliver monster numbers. Remember, the Reds were very much in the race until Votto left for a month in late May. Brandon Phillips is just a year removed from a Gold Glove season. Drew Stubbs has blistering speed and showed flashes of power at the major league level last season. Ramon Hernandez is back to handle the pitching. He offers offense that the Reds haven’t had behind the plate in a long time.

The rotation isn’t bad. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are the young guns. I’m willing to bet that Aaron Harang is back to his 2007 form. Bronson Arroyo will be his typical ‘500’ self. And the bullpen still has a legit closer in Francisco Cordero, with Jared Burton Nick Massett and Micah Owings providing set up and middle relief.

Jay Bruce is a large question. He hit well for the first two weeks of his major league career. After that, not so hot. There is no answer for left field and there’s no way the Reds are serious contenders with a short stop who hits ‘211’. The good news: Orlando Cabrera may be here by later today.

Look, the Cardinals signed Matt Holiday this winter. They still have Chris Carpenter and the best player in the game, Prince Albert. The Cubs just signed Xavier Nady and the Astros added pitcher Brett Myers among others.

But I get the feeling we’re going to be saying good bye to these 76-78 win seasons. 2011 looks like it could be a huge year, when Chris Heisey Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso and Aroldis Chapman join the core talent that will play at Great American Ball Park this season.

It’s a good time for the Reds to spread the word. Maybe they’ll become relevant again, to a lot more people, besides you and me.