Monday, February 16, 2009

Adam Dunn signed for two years, 20-million, Bobby Abreu took six million for a year. I’m wondering if the Reds have missed the boat. Pitchers and catchers are in camp, some of the positional players too. And I’m wondering if the Reds had made one more play in free agency this winter, if they’d be considered as a pre season contender for a playoff spot. Because right now, playoffs and your Cincinnati Reds don’t seem to have any chance of intersecting.

You know what you’re hearing a lot of this winter? “The Reds are going to be better this season”. You’re not hearing “The Reds have a shot to make the playoffs”. It’s “they’re going to be better this season’. I don’t know about you, that doesn’t make me want to go out and buy tickets. Decent rotation? Yes. Nice young players in Votto and Bruce? Yes. Bullpen better? Maybe. What else you got?

You can argue that the Cubs got weaker by trading Mark DeRosa. But did they get 23 and a half games weaker than last season? The answer is, no. And 23 and half is the number of games the Reds finished behind the Cubs last season.

Run production is going to be a major problem for this team this season. Votto and Bruce will have to put up numbers better than last season just for the Reds to approach what they did last year. Brandon Phillips is the real deal. But did Edwin Encarnacion change his approach to hitting in the off season? Did Willy Tavares figure out a way to get on base more than 30-percent of the time in the off season? Did Ramon Hernandez lose the attitude he copped last season in Baltimore?

Did the Reds miss the boat by not making a run at Abreu, who would have brought his .300 average and professionalism to Cincinnati. Maybe he would never consider coming here. Because at his age, at the point he’s at in his career, maybe Abreu only wants to play for a team with a legitimate chance at winning a pennant.

Can you still buy a championship in baseball? The Yankees were in that business back in the 90’s and made it work. They’ve been in that business for this decade too, and it hasn’t. Now, they’ve gone out and spent $430 million total dollars on three players: Mark Texeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. But does the paradigm that worked in the 90’s still work today?

You know, one of the best presents I ever got as a kid was a subscription to The Sporting News. My parents gave that to me as a birthday present when I turned ten. I remember it was in newspaper form, came wrapped up like a cylinder. You had to unwrap it and roll it out so it would lay flat. It came on Tuesdays. Every Tuesday afternoon I knew it was waiting for me when I got home from school. I walked to school, but on Tuesdays, I ran home. The Sporting News was the best. It has box scores from the entire previous week. That’s not even a quaint notion now. It seems ancient. You want a box score, it’s on a dozen web sites five minutes after the game ends. But back then, you got box scores and game reports. You got great columns from writers like Joe Falls of the Detroit Free Press and Bob Broeg from the St. Louis Post Dispatch. I couldn’t find Detroit or St. Louis on a map back then. But Falls and Broeg made me feel like I was in Tiger or Busch Stadium. That was the Sporting News.

Old habits die hard. I still subscribe. It doesn’t come every week in newspaper form. It arrives twice a month in a glossy magazine. Daily you can get it on the web. And I was reminded this week of why I still subscribe.

There s a wonderful series of articles on whether or not buying a baseball team is the route, anymore, to a pennant. The articles contrast how it was before free agency to what it is now. Several writers contributed to the series. But the chief writer is a man by the name of Stan McNeal. Tuesday, I'll have a link on my blog to an interview I did with McNeal about this very subject.

College basketball from the weekend. Xavier wins, UC loses. There’s a lot of concern about the way Xavier has been playing lately. And their throttling of one of the worst teams in the country Saturday probably didn’t make a whole lot of their fans breath easier. The farther you defend them from the basket, the more you send the Muskies to the free throw line, the better chance you have to beat them. Blueprint for Duquesne and Dayton in wins last week. But honestly, you want those problems to pop up now, not in March. I think what I’ve always thought about Xavier: it’s a good team, not great, with a great chance to play on the second weekend of the tournament.

UC has other issues. I’m on record, said it here last week, that if the Bearcats win three of their final seven games and win a game in the Big East Tournament, they’re in the NCAA’s. Three wins in their final seven would put the ‘Cats are 19-12 entering the Big East Tournament. They would’ve finished 9-9 in conference games. They’re 1-1 in their final seven so far. They’re on track to win three. I think they beat West Virginia and Seton Hall here. They may even sneak in another win. Maybe at South Florida, maybe here this week against Louisville. But this is what we’re hearing a lot of lately about UC: they haven’t beaten any team this season that’s a lock to go to the NCAA Tournament. Not one. Don’t give me Georgetown. The Hoyas are on life support. Notre Dame? Not buying it at this point.

So it would be in UC’s best interest if, in the final five games before its conference tournament, if the Bearcats figured out a way to beat Louisville or Syracuse.