Monday, June 18, 2007

Here's the problem with dealing Adam Dunn. The best the Reds will get for Dunn is a couple of prospects, probably prospects still a couple of years away from playing in the majors. Is it worth it for the Reds to unload their best power hitter for that?

It's a question that has to be making the rounds of the Reds front office. Dunn is infuriating with his ability to hit for power, tempered with his inability to field and his propensity for striking out. He'll also be making $13 million dollars next year, if the Reds hold onto him. If they don't, if he's traded, Dunn can void the final year of his deal. He'd be a free agent after this season. So that's why he won't bring the kind of payback he would have even a year ago. A "rental", which is what Dunn would be, usually only brings minor leaguers, low level minor leaguers.

And here's the other question the Reds brass has to be asking itself: where do you find offensive numbers that Dunn puts up and at what price? An established outfielder who can approach 30 home runs and drive in 90 (numbers under Dunn's yearly average) would cost between $5-6 million. That's if you can find one on the open market. So in reality, the Reds would be saving $7-8 million in dumping Dunn, regardless of what players come to Cincinnati in the deal. And they'd have to go find an outfielder, as the best outfield prospect in the Reds system is "A" star, Jay Bruce, still years away from the majors.

So it's not quite so simple as merely unloading Dunn and believing that the Reds will get immediate help at the major league level. Dunn may be going. But what comes in may not be what you think.